With that tweet this morning, news quickly spread that Brady was “free” and that the NFL had indeed screwed this entire saga up from the beginning.  But let’s take a look at the effect of this ruling on the Patriots and the betting market.

I updated the projections that were originally posted in my AFC East preview.  Here are the latest projections with Brady at the helm for all sixteen games:

Patriots non-supension

 

The Patriots most likely record is now 11-5 whereas in the previous result it was 10-6.  Overall the projected wins increased from 9.69 to 10.35.

New England’s divisional odds also improved:

TeamDivision %Implied Odds
Patriots61.0%-156
Dolphins24.9%+301
Jets7.4%+1248
Bills6.7%+1400

The biggest adjustment is that Tom Brady will now be playing in Buffalo in Week 2, the only division game that would have been affected by a 4-game suspension.  This substitution has greatly increased the odds of a 7th consecutive division title for New England and Buffalo’s chances has actually fallen below the Jets