The Tom Brady Effect

brady happy

With that tweet this morning, news quickly spread that Brady was “free” and that the NFL had indeed screwed this entire saga up from the beginning.  But let’s take a look at the effect of this ruling on the Patriots and the betting market.

I updated the projections that were originally posted in my AFC East preview.  Here are the latest projections with Brady at the helm for all sixteen games:

Patriots non-supension

 

The Patriots most likely record is now 11-5 whereas in the previous result it was 10-6.  Overall the projected wins increased from 9.69 to 10.35.

New England’s divisional odds also improved:

TeamDivision %Implied Odds
Patriots61.0%-156
Dolphins24.9%+301
Jets7.4%+1248
Bills6.7%+1400

The biggest adjustment is that Tom Brady will now be playing in Buffalo in Week 2, the only division game that would have been affected by a 4-game suspension.  This substitution has greatly increased the odds of a 7th consecutive division title for New England and Buffalo’s chances has actually fallen below the Jets

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