Texas Rangers off to a Historic Start

FielderBeltre

You may have missed it among all of the talk about the already-crowned 2016 Champion Chicago Cubs, but the Texas Rangers have the best record in the American League.  They have a 52-32 record and a 7.5-game lead over the 2nd place Astros in the AL West.  The Indians and Red Sox seem to be the more talked-about teams this season but the Rangers are still atop the standings for now.

You may have looked at the title and wondered “How the hell is 52-32 historic?”.  Through the 4th of July, the Rangers are outperforming the sportsbooks better than any MLB team in our database.  Here is a look at how betting on every team has done this season ($100 per bet)

Rangers List

As you can see, the Rangers are leading the way and by a very large margin.  I wanted to see how this Rangers team compares to teams from previous seasons.  Using the Custom Date Range filter, I was able to look at the results for each team through Independence Day for previous seasons.  Since the number of games played for each team will differ slightly, we’ll use return on investment (ROI) as our point of reference.

The Rangers 31.6% ROI is the highest in our database, narrowly beating out the 2005 Nationals team which had a 29.6% ROI through July 4th of that season.  But the real question everyone wants to know is will this continue?  Most of the advanced statistics show that good fortune is a large driver of the Rangers’ success this season which is a nice way of saying they have been extremely lucky (don’t punch me Rougned Odor!).  I’m not saying that all teams that are profitable are lucky, but when you are consistently beating the closing line of Pinnacle, it’s safe to say that the ball is bouncing your way more often than not. Below are the best performing teams in our database through July 4th, along with the units won or lost after that time.

TeamROI thru July 4Record afterUnits +/- after
'16 Rangers31.6%??????
'05 Nationals29.6%31-49-13.0
'13 Pirates28.1%42-36+0.1
'05 White Sox23.5%44-37+3.6
'10 Padres21.4%41-39-0.5
'06 Tigers21.3%39-39-6.3
'09 Dodgers19.7%44-37-4.7
'12 Pirates18.0%34-47-16.4
'12 Orioles17.8%49-32+22.6
'08 Twins17.8%40-37-4.3

Only the 2012 Orioles were able to keep up their pace in the second “half” of the season as most other teams lost units for bettors hoping to hop on board for the stretch run.  Looking at the results, I’m not going to definitively say you should fade the Rangers the rest of the season, but it is another good reminder that a team’s record should really not factor into how good you think a team actually is.

Let’s take a look at this from a different angle and view the Rangers performance against the closing moneyline since 2005:

Rangers Graph

Texas has been on quite the run, winning bettors over 50+ units over the last two seasons.  The question is are you going to hop on the end of this graph right now or is it time for regression to bring the Rangers back down to Earth?  I’m going with the latter.

 

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