Teddy Bridgewater and the NFC North

bridgewater sad

Just two days ago, we posted how the Tony Romo injury would affect the NFC East this season.  Sadly, we already have another quarterback injury to adjust to.  Teddy Bridgewater suffered a horrific leg and knee injury yesterday that should sideline him for the entire season.  The Vikings will surely search free agency and the waiver wire, but for now Shaun Hill takes over at quarterback.

This is a bigger blow to the Vikings than the Romo injury is to the Cowboys for two reasons.  First, Romo is expected to miss 6-10 weeks meaning he should be back with Dallas at some point this season.  Secondly, the uncertainty around Dak Prescott is actually a good thing.  We already have data and observations for Shaun Hill and it’s much more likely that Dak is an above average quarterback than Hill making a dramatic improvement.

Let’s first take a look at how Teddy Bridgewater’s injury affects the Vikings.  Here were the simulation results from when we first analyzed the NFC North a couple of weeks ago:

Screen Shot 2016-07-27 at 9.14.01 AM

And here are the projections now, WITHOUT Bridgewater:

Vikings wo Teddy

Teddy Bridgewater’s absence will definitely hurt but the Vikings still have a good roster and should be competitive.  9-7 is now the most likely result but it really hurts their chances of ten or more wins which is likely needed to make the playoffs.

TeamOdds before injuryOdds after injury
Packers56.0%63.2%
Vikings31.8%23.7%
Bears6.8%7.4%
Lions5.4%5.7%

The Vikings odds of winning the division dropped 8% and the main beneficiary are the Packers who are now even heavier favorites to win the NFC North.

The Las Vegas Superbook recently adjusted the Vikings team total from 9.5 to 8 wins.  This seems to be an over-adjustment according to the simulation although you could understand from the sportsbook’s perspective that they wouldn’t expect to see a lot of action taking the Over.  But this seems like the perfect time to not overreact and take the Vikings Over 8 and see if Minnesota can survive with a backup quarterback.

 

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