Baseball’s second half starts Friday. The bookmakers have updated their odds for each club to win the World Series. Which teams have value to win the Fall Classic?
To find out we created consensus World Series projections using Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs simulations. Then we compared the projections to the odds at 5Dimes. For example, Houston is +390, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Astros they would need to win it all 20.4% (which is 100/(390+100)) of the time. The ‘Stros are projected to win the World Series 19.1% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +390 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current odds: +425, Implied Probability: 19.0%
Dodgers win the World Series 23.8% of the time
The Dodgers aren’t the favorites to win the World Series but they should be. L.A. has the best record in baseball, won 26 of its last 30 games, and is tops in the big league in WAR (hitting and pitching). We recommended betting Clayton Kershaw and crew at +900 a month ago, if you missed those odds there is still value at +425. Both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs list the Blue Crew as the favorites to win the World Series.
Current odds: +760, Implied Probability: 11.6%
Indians win the World Series 16.5% of the time
The Tribe come out of the break in first place in the AL Central and are the only team in the division with a positive run differential. Cleveland should easily be able to expand its lead and clinch a playoff berth. Despite injuries and inconsistent play, the Indians pitching staff is the best in the American League and the offense ranks 7th in WAR in baseball. Cleveland looks for redemption after losing the World Series last year. If the Tribe finish on top, they’ll become just the third team since 1989 to lose in the World Series and win it the following year.
Below are each teams odds and projected chance to win the World Series.
|Los Angeles Dodgers||+425||26.4||21.1||23.75|
|Boston Red Sox||+635||6.4||10.9||8.65|
|New York Yankees||+1600||4.7||2.7||3.7|
|Kansas City Royals||+5000||0.2||0.4||0.3|
|St. Louis Cardinals||+6500||1.3||1.6||1.45|
|New York Mets||+6600||0||0.3||0.15|
|Tampa Bay Rays||+6600||2.2||0.8||1.5|
|Toronto Blue Jays||+7000||0.1||0||0.05|
|Los Angeles Angels||+10000||0||0.4||0.2|
|Chicago White Sox||+50000||0||0||0|
|San Francisco Giants||+250000||0||0||0|
|San Diego Padres||+500000||0||0||0|