The Golden State Warriors are looking to sweep the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Short-handed, Kawhi Leonard is not expected to play, the Spurs are double-digit underdogs at home. How have teams performed in elimination games?
Using the Bet Labs database I examined every elimination game in the playoffs over the last five years. Bad news for the Spurs, teams on the brink usually don’t win.
In last five years teams facing elimination are 53-71 (42.7%) straight-up and 58-64-2 (47.5%) ATS.
In that same time, teams facing elimination at home are 35-39 (47.3%) straight-up and 32-41-1 (43.8%) ATS.
Teams facing elimination that are underdogs have gone 27-54 (33.3%) straight-up and 38-41-2 (48.1%) ATS in the last five years.
Finally, teams down 0-3 have gone 7-15 (31.8%) straight-up and 9-12-1 (42.9%) ATS in the playoffs since the 2012-13 season.
No team in NBA history has come back to win a series after losing the first three games. Not only is it unlikely that San Antonio comes back to win the Western Conference finals, it is unlikely that the Spurs even force a Game 5.
Spurs vs. Warriors Game 4
This betting system 471-358 (57%) ATS since 2005