The Cleveland Cavaliers just swept the Toronto Raptors. LeBron James is heading back to the Eastern Conference finals for a seventh straight year. The Cavs now have six sweeps in the last three postseasons. How do you bet teams off a sweep in the first game of their next series?
Since 2005, there have been 33 teams that have swept their opponent in the playoffs. In the first game of the next series those teams have gone 22-10 (68.8%) straight-up and 19-13 (59.4%) against-the-spread. Twice teams off of sweeps faced each other in the next round, so if you exclude those matchups teams after beating an opponent 4-0 went 20-8 (71.4%) straight-up and 17-11 (60.7%) against-the-spread.
On average, in the first game of the next series the teams that swept have been favored by 6 points. In all playoff games, favorites of 5 to 7 points cover the spread 54.4% of the time. So teams off a sweep cover at a greater rate.
Teams that sweep often get to enjoy extra days off. Favorites with four or more days between playoff games have gone 84-57 (59.6%) ATS since 2005. The Cavs might not play again until next week.
Cleveland’s next opponent will be the winner of the Celtics/Wizards series. LeBron and crew will be favored in their first game regardless of who they face. However, if they get Washington in the conference finals the first game will be at home. Teams with four or more days off that are favored at home in their next game have gone 83-51 (61.9%) ATS since 2005.
We don’t know their next opponent or what the spread will be but all trends are pointing to backing the Cavs in their next game.
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Teams off a Sweep
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