The Sweet 16 is set. The bookmakers have updated each team’s odds of winning the national championship. Which team’s odds have improved the most heading into the Sweet 16?

Based on “true” odds, that are the implied probability when you remove the juice from the betting lines, Kansas’ chance of cutting down the nets has improved the most. The Jayhawks were +850 (9.0% chance) before the tournament started and now have a 16.1% implied probability. KU is tied with North Carolina for the best odds (+500) to win the Big Dance.

Wisconsin’s implied probability nearly quadrupled after beating the defending champions Villanova to reach the regional semifinal. With 1-seed Nova and 2-seed Duke out, the East is wide open. Baylor and Florida were two longshots before the tourney started but have seen their implied probabilities increase dramatically.

The only team’s whose odds actually got worse were Kentucky. The Wildcats have arguably the most difficult path to the Final Four. John Calipari’s squad has to first get past UCLA and then likely North Carolina. Kentucky had a 7.3% implied probability of winning the tournament before it tipped, after two games the team’s odds are down to 6.2%.

Maybe most interesting is how wide open the tournament remains. No team even has a 1-in-5 chance of winning it all.


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Vegas Implied Probabilities to win NCAA Championship

TeamPre-Tourney OddsImplied ProbabilitySweet 16Implied Probability
Kansas850950016.1
North Carolina70010.750016.1
Florida46001.812006.2
Baylor50001.714005.4
Wisconsin90000.918004.2
Michigan75001.118004.2
Arizona13006.18009
Gonzaga10007.866510.5
West Virginia35002.418004.2
Purdue33002.520003.8
South Carolina200000.450001.6
Oregon25003.318004.2
Xavier400000.2100000.8
Butler75001.150001.6
UCLA15255.314005.8
Kentucky10807.312006.2