The Cavaliers are down 0-3 to the Golden State Warriors in the best-of-seven series. Cleveland is not going to win the championship (+4000 to comeback). Instead of debating how this title loss impacts LeBron’s legacy let’s focus on something more important. Do teams down 0-3 cover the spread in Game 4?

The Warriors opened as 5.5-point favorites in Game 4. At the time of publication 64% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars are on Golden State to cover. The line has moved to Dubs -6.

Since 2005, teams facing a 0-3 deficit are 17-36 (32.1%) straight-up in Game 4. If they are underdogs, like the Cavs are, those teams have gone 12-32 (27.3%) in the fourth game of the series.

It doesn’t look good for the Cavs chances of extending the series but what about their odds of covering the spread?

Since 2005, teams down 0-3 have gone 21-29 (42%) ATS in Game 4. Underdogs are 18-24 (42.9%) ATS and home teams are 19-26 (42.2%) ATS. Home dogs down 0-3 have gone 16-21 (43.2%) ATS.

Being big underdogs doesn’t help either. Teams getting 6 or more points facing a sweep are 5-14 ATS since 2005.

The only positive that I could find for Cleveland fans is that the last team to be down 0-3 in the Finals covered the spread. That team was LeBron’s 2007 squad that lost to the Spurs in four games but managed to cover as 2.5-point dogs at home.

Most teams don’t cover down 0-3 but LeBron has.


Cavs vs. Warriors Game 4

Got a betting theory you want to test?

Find the Answer