Tom Brady is the favorite to win the NFL MVP

by John Ewing • June 22, 2017

Which player will win the NFL MVP award in 2017? Tom Brady is the 4/1 favorite. The Patriots star finished second in voting last year while only playing 12 games. Set for a full 16 game campaign this fall the future Hall of Fame quarterback is a clear front runner. Behind Brady is a slew […]

Can the Patriots Repeat?

by John Ewing • February 7, 2017

The New England Patriots defeated the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime to win Super Bowl LI. The Pats are listed as 5-1 favorites to win a sixth title next season but how likely is Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to repeat as champions? Regression to the mean is common for Super Bowl champions. Everything has […]

Should NFL change overtime rules?

by John Ewing • February 6, 2017

The New England Patriots scored 19-unanswered points in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 51 to force the first-ever overtime in the NFL title game. The Pats won the coin toss and promptly marched down the field to win the game 34-28 on a two-yard run by James White. The Falcons, that team that never […]

10 Most Profitable Super Bowl 51 Prop Bets

by John Ewing • February 6, 2017

The best part of the Super Bowl is the prop bets. Like the Patriots wild 34-28 comeback against the Falcons there were many surprising proposition wagers that cashed. Here are the ten most profitable Super Bowl 51 prop bets. Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass: Yes +175 The Falcons' win probability peaked at greater […]

How often do 3-point favorites win?

by John Ewing • February 1, 2017

The New England Patriots are trying to win their fifth Super Bowl in the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era. Bookmakers have listed the Pats as three point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons. How often do 3-point favorites win? There is a sample of 614 games in our database with a closing spread of 3 […]

Turnovers will decide which team covers the Super Bowl Spread

by John Ewing • January 31, 2017

Does offense or defense win championships? Turns out both but the real deciding factor in who wins the Super Bowl is turnovers. An ill-timed interception here, a fumble there can swing the fortunes of a team. Turnovers will decide not only who wins the Super Bowl but also which team covers. In the 50 previous […]

Super Bowl Gatorade Shower

by John Ewing • January 30, 2017

The tradition started with Bill Parcells but now winning coaches across all sports come to expect a Gatorade shower. Bettors can wager on the color of the liquid bath that the winning Super Bowl coach will receive. What color will the liquid be that is poured on the head coach of the winning team? (Bovada) […]

Super Bowl Coin Toss

by John Ewing • January 30, 2017

You can’t talk about the Super Bowl without mentioning prop bets. One of the most wagered on props is the coin toss. What can history tell us about these Super Bowl coin toss prop bets? Coin Toss is Heads/Tails ( Heads -102 Tails -102 When flipping a fair coin the chance of it landing on […]

Most Profitable Super Bowl Teams

by John Ewing • January 25, 2017

The New England Patriots are heading back to the Super Bowl. What you might not know is that the Pats have been making bettors tons of money this season. Bill Belichick’s team has gone 15-3 against-the-spread, +$1,168. On Monday’s episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast, Bill and Cousin Sal were discussing the Patriots gambling success. […]

Yes/No Super Bowl Prop Bets

by John Ewing • January 18, 2017

Will the Packers win the Super Bowl? Is there value betting that the Patriots won’t win the title? Let’s answer these Yes/No Super Bowl prop bets. To determine if a prop bet has value, we compare the current odds at to our projected chance based on 10,000 simulations of the NFL Playoffs. Patriots win […]