NFL simulations

Vikings are the team to beat in the NFC after Wentz injury

by John Ewing • December 13, 2017

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Philly was the best team in the NFC but the MVP candidate’s injury changes that. Which team benefits the most with Wentz sidelined? Every team in the NFC has a better chance, theoretically, of making a deep postseason run […]

Even after loss, numbers still favor Eagles in NFC

by John Ewing • December 5, 2017

Philadelphia’s nine-game winning streak ended unceremoniously with a 24-10 loss to Seattle on Sunday night. The Seahawks were the Eagles biggest challenge to date and the team faltered. It is easy to understand why Doug Pederson’s team lost: turnovers (including a fumble in the red zone) and penalties. Fans in Philadelphia might be worried but […]

Jags-Saints Super Bowl is no joke

by John Ewing • November 21, 2017

Before the season began, a Jaguars-Saints Super Bowl seemed ludicrous. The Golden Nugget listed the potential title matchup at 500/1 (0.2% implied probability). With both teams sitting in first place in their respective divisions and in contention for a first round bye, the thought of the NFL championship game featuring Blake Bortles and the Saints’ […]

Saints tops in the NFC, but Eagles better shot to win Super Bowl

by John Ewing • November 14, 2017

Name the best team in the NFC. If you said the Eagles, with an NFL-best 8-1 record, you’re wrong. The streaking Saints are tops in the conference according to our Power Rankings. Winners of seven straight, New Orleans is dominating with defense and the run game. As Matthew Freedman points out in his Week 11 […]

Steelers are Super Bowl favorites heading into Week 10

by John Ewing • November 7, 2017

Look at any sportsbook, the Patriots are the favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy (5Dimes +425, BetOnline +200, Bookmakers +400). Yet, by our model, the Steelers are Super Bowl favorites heading into Week 10. What gives? Pittsburgh has a commanding 2.5-game lead in the AFC North. Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are 94.4% […]

The Rams are crushing their season win total

by John Ewing • November 1, 2017

Back in August we evaluated every team’s season win total to determine the best value bets. Based on our simulations, the Jets and Jags were two teams that would exceed expectations while the Bucs and Broncos would disappoint. After eight weeks, we look like geniuses! New York and Jacksonville are on pace to go OVER […]

2017 NFL Simulations (Week 8 Update): Fly, Eagles, Fly

by John Ewing • October 31, 2017

After eight weeks, the Eagles (7-1) own the NFL’s best record. Before the season began, we projected Philly to finish 8-8 with a 31.5% chance of reaching the postseason. The development of franchise quarterback Carson Wentz has changed the outlook for the Eagles. Wentz is tied with Deshaun Watson for the league lead in touchdown […]

2017 Exact Super Bowl Matchups (Week 3 Update)

by John Ewing • September 27, 2017

Who will win the Super Bowl? What team will they defeat in the big game? A fun prop this time of year is exact Super Bowl matchups because no teams are officially eliminated from the postseason. You can bet on every combination of teams to face each other in the title game, even Jets vs. […]

Official 2017-18 Bet Labs NFL Simulation

by John Ewing • September 5, 2017

The 2017-18 NFL season is about to begin. We’ve given you Week 1 betting trends, reviewed the most profitable Pro Systems, explained how to bet each division as well as covered the teams that could go 0-16 and when the Pats will lose. Much of our NFL content is derived from our simulations. Two days […]

Will your favorite team win 11 games?

by John Ewing • August 14, 2017

11 wins gets you in the playoffs, most of the time. Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 franchises, there have been 108 teams that won 11 or more games and 107 (99.1%) of them participated in the playoffs. The one team that didn’t was the 2008 Patriots (11-5) and the last team before […]