The Los Angeles Rams are 3-1 and on top of the NFC West. Are we sure they’re good? There are reasons to think this is legit. Sean McVay is a massive upgrade over Jeff Fisher, the offense has scored the most points in the league with an improving Jared Goff and resurgent Todd Gurley and the defense should continue to develop under new coordinator Wade Phillips.
But, we’ve seen fast starts from the Rams before. Los Angeles fired out of the gates last year going 3-1 after four games. The team went 1-11 the rest of the way.
L.A. opened as 2-point favorites at home over division rival Seattle. Whether you believe in the Rams or not, it has been profitable to fade bad teams from last year after fast starts early in the season.
Betting against teams that didn’t make the playoffs last year but have a winning record and are favored early in the season (Week 8 or before) has gone 241-180 (57.2%) ATS, +50.97 units since 2003.
Four games are in the books, that’s a quarter of the NFL season but it doesn’t give bettors much information. The Rams might be a legit playoff team (31.5% chance of reaching the postseason according to our simulations) but historically it has been profitable to fade bad teams from last year, off to a winning start, as favorites early in the season.
Bettors are backing the Seahawks with a majority of spread tickets currently on Seattle. The line has dropped to pick’em at Pinnacle (a sharp sportsbook) but Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom are still available at +1 or even +1.5 at other books.
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