Futures wagers require bettors to correctly select a team to win an event that takes place at a later time. Rarely are you given the option to bet that a team won’t win the event. However, at 5dimes you can bet whether or not a team or the field will win the Super Bowl. Here are a few future bets worth placing.
To determine if a team or the field has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl at 5dimes and compare that to our projected chance that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2016 season. For example, Oakland is +1250 to win the Super Bowl. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Raiders they would need to win the title 7.7% (which is 100/(100+1200) of the time. The Raiders are projected to win the Super Bowl just 6.7% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +1200 odds. There is also no value in betting the field vs. Oakland.
Field vs. the Patriots
Current odds: -325, Implied Probability: 76.5%
Field wins the Super Bowl 78.3% of the time
The Pats are still the betting favorites in Las Vegas to win the Super Bowl. However, Rob Gronkowski’s injury greatly impacts New England’s chance of winning the title.
As you can see from the chart above, per ESPN, Tom Brady has been an average quarterback when Gronk isn’t on the field. If Brady doesn’t play like a Hall of Famer the rest of the league benefits.
Monday Night Football: Patriots vs. Ravens
There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 419-338 (55%) ATS
Current odds: +430, Implied Probability: 18.9%
Cowboys win the Super Bowl 29.2% of the time
In our current simulation the Cowboys became the most likely team to win the Super Bowl. Dallas is the first team to clinch a playoff spot. A win on the road this week against the Giants gives the team the NFC East. If the Cowboys can win and the Lions lose/tie and the Seahawks lose, then Dallas locks up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Field vs. the Steelers
Current odds: -1750, Implied Probability: 94.6%
Field wins the Super Bowl 96.7% of the time
The Steelers have won three straight, all by multiple scores, and are in a tie for first place in the AFC North. Pittsburgh should win the division but Big Ben and crew have just the third best odds in the AFC to win the title and are sizeable dogs to the Cowboys and Seahawks. There is value betting the field to win the Super Bowl.
Other teams with value: Seahawks +500
Super Bowl vs. the Field bets
|Team||Odds||Implied Probability (%)||Projected Chance (%)|
|New England Patriots||+275||26.7||21.7|
|Kansas City Cheifs||+1300||7.1||5.6|