To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl and compare that to our projected odds that they hoist the Lombardi Trophy. For example, New England is the favorite at 7/1, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Patriots they would need to win it all 12.5% (which is 1/(7+1)) of the time. The Pats are projected to win the Super Bowl 11.5% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 7/1 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Green Bay Packers
Current odds: 8/1, Implied Probability: 11.1%
Packers win the Super Bowl 11.6% of the time
10,000 simulations say the Cheeseheads are the most likely team to win the title. That has to count for something. If you want more Aaron Rodgers, the best quarterback in the game, gets Jordy Nelson back. The Packers also have a top 10 schedule and are the most likely team to get a 1st Round bye in the playoffs. It is always worth betting the most likely champion at less than favorite odds.
Current odds: 10/1, Implied Probability: 9.1%
Panthers win the Super Bowl 10.6% of the time
The Panthers are going to win the NFC South for a fourth straight season as the rest of the teams in the division are still in rebuild mode. Carolina won’t win 15 games again but they don’t need to in order to return to the big game. Most of last year’s NFC Championship squad is back and after getting upset in the Super Bowl you know they are hungry for another bite at the apple.
Current odds: 20/1, Implied Probability: 4.8%
Vikings win the Super Bowl 5.2% of the time
Minnesota is the longshot with value. The Vikings are tied for the 11th best Super Bowl odds. Teddy Bridgewater maturation as a passer should continue, Adrian Peterson never stops and the defense is young and improving (top 15 in DVOA vs. the run and pass. The Vikings are projected to battle Green Bay for the NFC North and are nearly 60% likely to return to the playoffs.
Other teams with value: Steelers 17/2 and Seahawks 17/2
Below are all 32 NFL teams and their chances to win the Super Bowl.
|Team||Odds||Implied Probability||Super Bowl Probability|
|Green Bay Packers||8/1||11.1%||11.6%|
|New England Patriots||7/1||12.5%||11.5%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||20/1||4.8%||4.6%|
|New York Giants||14/1||6.7%||1.1%|
|New York Jets||50/1||2.0%||0.9%|
|Los Angeles Rams||66/1||1.5%||0.4%|
|San Diego Chargers||50/1||2.0%||0.4%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||80/1||1.2%||0.3%|
|New Orleans Saints||80/1||1.2%||0.3%|
|San Francisco 49ers||100/1||1.0%||0.0%|
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