It is every franchise’s goal to win the Super Bowl but only one will. We know the odds for all 32 NFL teams but which squads are offering value?
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds that they hoist the Lombardi Trophy. For example, last year’s runner-up the Atlanta Falcons are +1400, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Matt Ryan and crew they would need to win it all 6.7% (which is 100/(1400+100)) of the time. The Falcons are projected to win the Super Bowl 4.9% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +1400 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
New England Patriots
Current odds: +405, Implied Probability: 19.8%
Pats win the Super Bowl 34.6% of the time
A lot can and will change before kickoff of Super Bowl LII and history is not on the New England’s side but if any team can repeat it is the Patriots. The team is led by future Hall of Famer Tom Brady and arguably the best coach of all-time. On paper, the Pats should be even better than the team that was the most profitable ATS squad in our database last year. Brady and crew are the most likely champions and by our numbers should be closer to +200 favorites, not +405.
Current odds: +1100, Implied Probability: 8.3%
Seahawks win the Super Bowl 11.7% of the time
The Seahawks are the most likely NFC team to get a first round bye according to our simulations and the last two times that has happened Seattle ended up in the Super Bowl. The Legion of Boom gets super-safety Earl Thomas back and Russell Wilson should be healthy after dealing with legs issues most of last season. Thanks to a weak division, the Seahawks should contend for the best record in football this season.
Current odds: +1250, Implied Probability: 7.4%
Steelers win the Super Bowl 10.4% of the time
Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are the biggest threats to the Patriots in the AFC. As long as the Killer B’s are in uniform the Steelers offense will always hum, it is the defense that will be the difference between an early playoff exit and a championship. Last year, the unit improved from 11th to 7th in DVOA. If the defense takes another step forward it could mean the Lombardi is heading back to the Steele City.
NFL Week 1: Steelers at Browns
There is a Pro System for this game that is 77% ATS since 2003
Other teams with value: Packers +1025
Below are all 32 NFL teams and their chances to win the Super Bowl.
|New England Patriots||+405||34.6|
|Green Bay Packers||+1025||9.3|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+2700||2.5|
|New York Giants||+2450||1.5|
|New Orleans Saints||+5500||0.8|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+4000||0.8|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+7000||0.3|
|Los Angeles Rams||+25000||0.07|
|New York Jets||+40000||0.01|
|San Francisco 49ers||+32500||0|