There are five teams that have started the season 3-0. Is there value betting any of them to win the Super Bowl?
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl at Sportsbook.ag and compare that to our projected odds that they hoist the Lombardi Trophy. For example, Green Bay is +800, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Packers they would need to win it all 11.1% (which is 100/(800+100)) of the time. The Cheeseheads are projected to win the Super Bowl 5.1% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +800 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Current odds: +1200, Implied Probability: 7.7%
Broncos win the Super Bowl 10.4% of the time
Trevor Siemian is a top ten quarterback – just like everyone predicted! The 24-year old looked great in his first road start throwing for 312 yards and four touchdowns against Cincinnati. The defense is still excellent and will not have to shoulder the load like last season if Siemian continues to develop.
Current odds: +1400, Implied Probability: 6.7%
Vikings win the Super Bowl 9.2% of the time
The sky is falling, that is probably how Vikings fans felt when they lost Teddy Bridgewater to a knee injury in the preseason and Adrian Peterson to a torn meniscus. However, all hope is not lost. Minnesota is undefeated after three weeks thanks to superb play from its defense. Denver proved you can win a championship with defense, the Vikings will try to replicate that success.
New England Patriots
Current odds: +360, Implied Probability: 21.7%
Patriots win the Super Bowl 12.8% of the time
Tom Brady could return next week and have a three game lead in the AFC East. The Patriots have been nothing short of amazing with the future Hall of Fame quarterback sidelined due to suspension. The Pats are the most likely team to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. There is still value in betting New England +360, even as the bookmakers’ favorite to win it all.
Other teams with value: Seahawks +1200, Eagles +2000, Chiefs +3000, Ravens +3000
Below are all 32 NFL teams and their chances to win the Super Bowl.
|Team||Odds||Implied Probability||Projected Chance|
|New England Patriots||+360||21.7%||25.3%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+3000||3.2%||5.8%|
|Green Bay Packers||+800||11.1%||5.1%|
|New York Giants||+2200||4.3%||0.6%|
|San Diego Chargers||+10000||1.0%||0.5%|
|New York Jets||+6500||1.5%||0.1%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+20000||0.5%||0.0%|
|Los Angeles Rams||+10000||1.0%||0.0%|
|New Orleans Saints||+22500||0.4%||0.0%|
|San Francisco 49ers||+40000||0.2%||0.0%|