Super Bowl Value Bets

Super Bowl Value Bets

There are five teams that have started the season 3-0. Is there value betting any of them to win the Super Bowl?

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl at and compare that to our projected odds that they hoist the Lombardi Trophy. For example, Green Bay is +800, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Packers they would need to win it all 11.1% (which is 100/(800+100)) of the time. The Cheeseheads are projected to win the Super Bowl 5.1% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +800 odds.

Here are a few teams with value.

Denver Broncos

Current odds: +1200, Implied Probability: 7.7%

Broncos win the Super Bowl 10.4% of the time

Trevor Siemian is a top ten quarterback – just like everyone predicted! The 24-year old looked great in his first road start throwing for 312 yards and four touchdowns against Cincinnati. The defense is still excellent and will not have to shoulder the load like last season if Siemian continues to develop.

Minnesota Vikings

Current odds: +1400, Implied Probability: 6.7%

Vikings win the Super Bowl 9.2% of the time

The sky is falling, that is probably how Vikings fans felt when they lost Teddy Bridgewater to a knee injury in the preseason and Adrian Peterson to a torn meniscus. However, all hope is not lost. Minnesota is undefeated after three weeks thanks to superb play from its defense. Denver proved you can win a championship with defense, the Vikings will try to replicate that success.

New England Patriots

Current odds: +360, Implied Probability: 21.7%

Patriots win the Super Bowl 12.8% of the time

Tom Brady could return next week and have a three game lead in the AFC East. The Patriots have been nothing short of amazing with the future Hall of Fame quarterback sidelined due to suspension. The Pats are the most likely team to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl. There is still value in betting New England +360, even as the bookmakers’ favorite to win it all.

Other teams with value: Seahawks +1200, Eagles +2000, Chiefs +3000, Ravens +3000

Below are all 32 NFL teams and their chances to win the Super Bowl.

TeamOddsImplied ProbabilityProjected Chance
New England Patriots+36021.7%25.3%
Minnesota Vikings+14006.7%12.8%
Denver Broncos+12007.7%11.3%
Seattle Seahawks+12007.7%10.3%
Philadelphia Eagles+20004.8%6.7%
Kansas City Chiefs+30003.2%5.8%
Green Bay Packers+80011.1%5.1%
Baltimore Ravens+30003.2%3.8%
Dallas Cowboys+22004.3%3.8%
Carolina Panthers+16005.9%3.6%
Arizona Cardinals+15006.3%3.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers+10009.1%2.8%
Atlanta Falcons+60001.6%1.2%
Indianapolis Colts+60001.6%1.1%
Oakland Raiders+40002.4%0.8%
New York Giants+22004.3%0.6%
Houston Texans+30003.2%0.6%
San Diego Chargers+100001.0%0.5%
Buffalo Bills+100001.0%0.3%
Cincinnati Bengals+40002.4%0.2%
Detroit Lions+100001.0%0.1%
Miami Dolphins+175000.6%0.1%
New York Jets+65001.5%0.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+200000.5%0.0%
Los Angeles Rams+100001.0%0.0%
New Orleans Saints+225000.4%0.0%
Washington Redskins+100001.1%0.0%
Tennessee Titans+250000.4%0.0%
Chicago Bears+500000.2%0.0%
Jacksonville Jaguars+400000.2%0.0%
San Francisco 49ers+400000.2%0.0%
Cleveland Browns+1000000.1%0.0%

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