Super Bowl Value Bets 10.26.16

Super Bowl Value Bets

There are no more unbeaten teams, each NFL squad has flaws but which should you bet to win the Super Bowl?

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Super Bowl at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds that they hoist the Lombardi Trophy. For example, Seattle is +725, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Seahawks they would need to win it all 12.1% (which is 100/(725+100)) of the time. Russell Wilson and crew are projected to win the Super Bowl 7.0% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +725 odds.

Here are a few teams with value.

New England Patriots

Current odds: +260, Implied Probability: 27.8%

Pats win the Super Bowl 28.3% of the time

The Pats are undefeated since Tom Brady returned from suspension. The future Hall of Famer is completing over 75% of his passes for six touchdowns and no interceptions. New England has the best point differential in the league and is beating opponents by nearly ten points per game. The offense has been nearly unstoppable and while there is concern with the defense, do you really want to bet against Belichick and Brady?

Minnesota Vikings

Current odds: +1025, Implied Probability: 8.9%

Vikings win the Super Bowl 18.8% of the time

Don’t overreact to one week. Sure the offensive line play was poor in Sunday’s loss to Philadelphia, Sam Bradford was sacked six times and committed three turnovers; however, those issues are correctable. The defense is still stellar and the schedule is manageable. Minnesota is the most likely team in the NFC to get home field advantage and a first round bye.


Monday Night Football: Vikings vs. Bears.

There is a Pro System trend for this game that is 139-82 (63%) ATS, +49.8 units.

Get game matches for this system


Dallas Cowboys

Current odds: +1300, Implied Probability: 7.1%

Cowboys win the Super Bowl 10.1% of the time

The Cowboys are top ten in nearly every offensive category. Dallas is averaging 26.5 points/game (7th), 401.5 yards/game (3rd), are first in time of possession, second in turnovers (5) and top three in 3rd down conversions (46.6%). The defense isn’t great but if Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott continue to play like Pro Bowlers, instead of rookies, it won’t matter.

Other teams with value: Broncos +1500, Eagles +3300, Bills +10500

Below are all 32 NFL teams and their chances to win the Super Bowl.

TeamOddsImplied ProbabilityProjected Chance
New England Patriots+26027.828.3
Minnesota Vikings+10258.918.8
Dallas Cowboys+13007.110.1
Denver Broncos+15006.38.7
Seattle Seahawks+72512.17.0
Buffalo Bills+105000.96.3
Philadelphia Eagles+33002.95.8
Pittsburgh Steelers+13007.14.4
Arizona Cardinals+22004.34.0
Atlanta Falcons+18005.32.1
Kansas City Chiefs+22004.31.7
Green Bay Packers+11258.20.7
Oakland Raiders+45002.20.7
San Diego Chargers+66001.50.3
Houston Texans+70001.40.2
Indianapolis Colts+70001.40.2
Washington Redskins+115000.90.2
Baltimore Ravens+195000.50.2
Tennessee Titans+260000.40.2
New York Giants+66001.50.1
Carolina Panthers+105000.90.1
Detroit Lions+145000.70.1
New Orleans Saints+250000.40.1
Cincinnati Bengals+55001.80.0
Miami Dolphins+170000.60.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+185000.50.0
Los Angeles Rams+225000.40.0
Jacksonville Jaguars+290000.30.0
New York Jets+350000.30.0
Chicago Bears+3500000.00.0
Cleveland Browns+9999990.00.0
San Francisco 49ers+8500000.00.0

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