We know when the Super Bowl is but what teams will be playing for the championship? Here is a look at the possible Super Bowl Matchups and which offer value.
To determine if a matchup has value we look at what their current odds are at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds that the two teams meet in the Super Bowl. For example, the Patriots and Packers are +820 to meet, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on that matchup the two teams would need to square off 10.9% (which is 100/(820+100)) of the time. The projected chance of a Patriots-Packers Super Bowl is 7.4%, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +820 odds.
Patriots vs. Cowboys
Current odds: +271, Implied Probability: 27.0%
Chance of matchup: 27.4%
New England is the most likely team to win the Super Bowl. If it’s not the Pats then the Cowboys will win it all. Our simulation likes the favorites and there is better than a 1-in-4 chance we get a Patriots-Cowboys Super Bowl showdown. The NFL wants this matchup, place this wager and you’ll be cheering for it as well.
Chiefs vs. Seahawks
Current odds: +3100, Implied Probability: 3.1%
Chance of matchup: 3.2%
The Patriots are the best team in the AFC, the Steelers have won eight in a row and no one is talking about the Kansas City. The Chiefs are a good well-round team that has better than a punchers chance of knocking off Pittsburgh and New England. The Seahawks looked like their old selves rushing for 177 yards and holding the Lions to six points. This bet might be considered a longshot but its not improbable that it happens.
Texans vs. Cowboys
Current odds: +11000, Implied Probability: 0.9%
Chance of matchup: 1.1%
Dallas in the Super Bowl, sure we can all agree that will happen. The Texans? It is unlikely but so was this…
Other matchups with value: Patriots-Seahawks, Texans-Falcons and Texans-Seahawks
The Divisional Round starts Saturday
|Matchup||Odds||Implied Chance||Projected Chance|
|Patriots vs. Cowboys||+271||27.0||27.4|
|Patriots vs. Falcons||+411||19.6||19.3|
|Patriots vs. Packers||+820||10.9||7.4|
|Patriots vs. Seahawks||+879||10.2||11.9|
|Chiefs vs. Cowboys||+1105||8.3||7.3|
|Steelers vs. Cowboys||+1110||8.3||5.7|
|Steelers vs. Falcons||+1370||6.8||4.0|
|Chiefs vs. Falcons||+1565||6.0||5.1|
|Steelers vs. Packers||+2650||3.6||1.5|
|Chiefs vs. Packers||+2950||3.3||1.9|
|Chiefs vs. Seahawks||+3100||3.1||3.2|
|Steelers vs. Seahawks||+3100||3.1||2.5|
|Texans vs. Cowboys||+11000||0.9||1.1|
|Texans vs. Falcons||+15300||0.6||0.8|
|Texans vs. Packers||+28000||0.4||0.3|
|Texans vs. Seahawks||+29500||0.3||0.5|