The Atlanta Falcons blew a 28-3 lead against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI. It is one of the worst losses in NFL history. Many fans will never get over coming so close to championship but at least the Falcons were playing for the title. There are 12 teams that haven’t been to a Super Bowl in at least 20 years.

Super Bowl Droughts

  • Lions: 51 seasons
  • Browns: 51 seasons
  • Jets: 48 seasons
  • Chiefs: 47 seasons
  • Vikings: 40 seasons
  • Dolphins: 32 seasons
  • Bengals: 28 seasons
  • Redskins: 25 seasons
  • Bills: 22 seasons
  • Jaguars: 22 seasons
  • Chargers: 22 seasons
  • Cowboys: 21 seasons

Of these franchises, which could see its Super Bowl drought come to an end in 2017?

We simulated the 2017 NFL season 10,000 times using team projections and adjusting for strength of schedule to find out.

The Browns, Lions and Jaguars have never played in a Super Bowl. Detroit has the best chance of the group to ends its streak but with a measly 1.5% chance don’t start planning the parade.

Miami, Buffalo and New York all have a 0.5% chance or less. The joys of sharing a division with Tom Brady and the Patriots.

It has been more than 40 years since the Chiefs or Vikings appeared in a Super Bowl. KC has a 5.0% chance (4th best in the AFC) and Minnesota has a 3.4% (7th best in NFC) of reaching the big game.

The most likely team to end its Super Bowl appearance drought is the Dallas Cowboys. The ‘Boys have a 13.6% chance of getting to Super Bowl LII. With Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott behind a dominant line, the offense ranked 5th in DVOA last year. Jerry Jones’ team should put up points once again but the defense will determine how far the squad goes in the playoffs.

Sooner or later these franchises will end their droughts but can they reach Super Bowl LII? Probably not.

Super Bowl Appearance Droughts

Team Drought (years)Chance of Reaching Super Bowl LII
Lions511.5%
Browns510.01%
Jets480.03%
Chiefs475.0%
Vikings403.4%
Dolphins320.5%
Bengals282.5%
Redskins 251.6%
Bills 220.3%
Jaguars220.4%
Chargers221.0%
Cowboys2113.6%