The New England Patriots defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons topped the Green Bay Packers to advance to Super Bowl 51. Here is everything you need to know about the big game on Super Sunday.

Betting Line

Last week, the lookahead lines had the Patriots listed as 3.5 point favorites against the Falcons. After Atlanta’s blowout of the Packers, bookmakers have opened New England as 3 point favorites in Super Bowl 51.

Early money is coming in on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, 69% of bets and 78% of the money are on the Pats to cover.

The total is listed at 58.5.

The Falcons and Patriots rank first and second in offensive DVOA and have combined to score 150 points in the postseason. The total is the largest we have ever tracked for a Super Bowl. The next biggest was Colts-Saints in 2010 (56.5).

Futures

  • Prior to the season, Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl was listed at 111/1 at 5Dimes.
  • When the NFL season started, there were more tickets on the Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl than on the Falcons per CG Technology.
  • William Hill has taken 184 tickets on the Dirty Birds to win the title at 100/1 or greater.
  • The Pats were consensus favorites to win the Super Bowl throughout the season, nearly 4 times as much money is on New England to win the title than Atlanta.

Simulations

After 10,000 simulations of Super Bowl 51, the most likely winner is the New England Patriots. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick win their fifth Lombardi Trophy 63.2% of the time.

Our simulation continues to like the Pats more than most. For comparison, FiveThirtyEight.com gives New England a 61% chance to win the Super Bowl while ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Patriots at 55.6% chance to win.

TeamProjected Chance
New England Patriots63.2%
Atlanta Falcons36.8%

Value Bets

The money-line for Super Sunday is Patriots -160, Falcons +140 at Cris. Based on these odds there is value wagering on the Pats to win straight-up.

TeamOddsImplied ProbabilityProjected Chance
Patriots-16061.5%63.2%
Falcons+14041.7%36.8%

If you convert our simulations results to spread values, you get an approximate spread of Patriots -3.5.

According to the simulation and the anticipated line movement, Falcons’ supporters should take the three points now while New England bettors should be patient in anticipation of a better line at 2.5.


Super Bowl 51 is two weeks away

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