Look at any sportsbook, the Patriots are the favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy (5Dimes +425, BetOnline +200, Bookmakers +400). Yet, by our model, the Steelers are Super Bowl favorites heading into Week 10. What gives?

Pittsburgh has a commanding 2.5-game lead in the AFC North. Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are 94.4% likely, best in football, to lead the Steelers to back-to-back division titles. The team’s schedule in the second half of the season is favorable. Five of the eight remaining games will take place in the friendly confines of Heinz Field and only two of the Steelers remaining opponents have a winning record. Plus, in what could ultimately decide home field advantage in the AFC, Pittsburgh will host New England in their Week 15 matchup.

5Dimes lists Pittsburgh at +670, implied odds of 13.0%, to win the Super Bowl. After 10,000 simulations, the Steelers have a 16.5% chance of winning the franchise’s eighth championship. There is value betting on the Killer B’s.

Here is everything else you need to know after Week 9. Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017-18 season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule.

Biggest Winners

Los Angeles Rams (+22.0% increase in playoff probability): The Rams rolled the New York Giants on Sunday 51-17. Jared Goff threw for 311 yards and four touchdowns, both career highs. In first place in the NFC West, Los Angeles is, for the first time this season, one of the most likely teams to make the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+19.3% increase in playoff probability): Jacksonville won consecutive games for this first time this season beating Cincinnati 23-7. The Jags have found a winning formula: running the ball and defense. The offense is 6th in rushing efficiency (average 166.5 yards per game) and the defense is No. 1 in DVOA (allowing a league-best 14.6 points per game).


Week 10: Jags vs. Chargers

This Pro System is 173-102-5 (62.9%) ATS since 2003

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Biggest Losers

Houston Texans (-28.5% decrease in playoff probability): For all intents and purposes, Houston’s season ended last Thursday. Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in practice. When the rookie quarterback had season-ending surgery the Texans playoff probability dropped from 33.7% to 14.4%. A loss at home to the 3-6 Colts on Sunday made Houston longshots to reach the postseason.

Atlanta Falcons (-24.4% decrease in playoff probability): The Super Bowl runner-up has lost four of five after starting the season 3-0. The Falcons are averaging just 21.3 points per game, a year after leading the league in scoring (33.8 ppg). Atlanta is .500 and in third place in the AFC South after losing to the Panthers 20-17.

Most likely AFC Playoff teams:

  • Steelers 98.5%
  • Patriots 95.9%
  • Chiefs 94.8%
  • Jaguars 94.3%
  • Titans 57.5%
  • Bills 55.2%

Most likely NFC Playoff teams:

  • Eagles 96.8%
  • Seahawks 85.2%
  • Saints 81.0%
  • Vikings 80.0%
  • Rams 76.3%
  • Panthers 58.9%

Most likely teams to get a 1st Round bye in the playoffs

  • Steelers 67.3%
  • Eagles 67.3%
  • Patriots 51.3%
  • Jaguars 36.9%
  • Seahawks 34.5%
  • Chiefs 33.3%

Most likely teams to get Home Field Advantage

  • Eagles 46.6%
  • Steelers 43.0%
  • Patriots 27.6%
  • Seahawks 17.0%
  • Jaguars 13.6%
  • Chiefs 12.5%

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamDivision Winner %Make Playoffs %Win Super Bowl %
Pittsburgh Steelers94.498.4616.46
Philadelphia Eagles83.7496.8115.37
New England Patriots85.2495.8714.54
Seattle Seahawks60.1485.199.2
Jacksonville Jaguars77.6394.298.56
Kansas City Chiefs91.394.797.83
New Orleans Saints62.3681.016.69
Los Angeles Rams39.1876.255.13
Minnesota Vikings73.2280.034.91
Dallas Cowboys16.2254.273.52
Carolina Panthers29.6958.882.35
Buffalo Bills13.8155.181.2
Baltimore Ravens5.2950.361.09
Detroit Lions23.7935.680.97
Tennessee Titans21.3957.530.95
Atlanta Falcons7.8522.080.69
Oakland Raiders3.7813.530.22
Los Angeles Chargers2.78.280.14
Denver Broncos2.2290.07
New York Jets0.134.360.03
Miami Dolphins0.825.810.02
Houston Texans0.935.250.02
Washington Redskins0.042.940.02
Cincinnati Bengals0.316.660.01
Green Bay Packers2.083.360.01
Arizona Cardinals0.6820
Chicago Bears0.911.190
Indianapolis Colts0.050.630
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.10.30
New York Giants00.010
Cleveland Browns000
San Francisco 49ers000