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Each week we will provide a betting trend for the most interesting NFL games. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2003, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
Colts vs. Steelers (-10.5)
Pittsburgh comes out of its bye week looking like the best team in the AFC. The Steelers have won three straight and have a strangle hold on the AFC North. Oddsmakers opened Big Ben, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown as 10.5-point favorites over the Colts in Indianapolis on Sunday. Without Andrew Luck, Indy has struggled to a 3-6 record. Recreational bettors have declared for the Killer B’s as more than 60% of spread tickets are laying the points with the road favorite. When it looks too easy, it usually is. Steelers-Colts is a trap game, for squares.
Double-digit favorites are 213-244-10 (46.6%) ATS
- On the road: 28-42 (40.0%) ATS
Rams (-11.5) vs. Texans
The Rams (6-2) have the best offense in the league scoring 32.9 points per game and the defense is 4th in DVOA. L.A. is quickly becoming a public team having covered five of its first eight games including three straight. In early betting action, more than 80% of spread tickets are on Sean McVay’s team at home. Popular favorites have a tendency to disappoint.
Teams getting 70% or more of bets
- All favorites: 525-561-26 (48.3%) ATS
- 3 or more points: 468-513-26 (47.7%) ATS
- 7 or more points: 199-238-8 (45.5%) ATS
Jaguars (-4) vs. Chargers
From the Action Network newsletter (sign-up for free), “Matthew Freedman broke down Jacksonville’s success in his Vegas Report, pointing out that, not only are the Jags tops in the league with 14.63 ppg allowed, they lead the league with a +5.47 opponent plus/minus (essentially the delta between an opponents’ total points per game and the implied total, as determined by point spreads and game totals). But guess who is No. 2 on that list? The Los Angeles Chargers, at +4.91.”
Jags-Chargers could be a slugfest on Sunday. Which team is offering value?
Week 10: Jags vs. Chargers
This Pro System is 173-102-5 (62.9%) ATS since 2003
49ers vs. Giants (-1)
Two awful teams take the field Sunday at Levi’s Stadium. While most squads are jockeying for playoff position in Week 10, the 49ers (0-9) and Giants (1-7) are battling for draft order. San Francisco opened as 1-point favorites before steam moved the line to New York -1 on the road. When bad teams play, fade the favorite.
When two bad teams play (<25% win rate) the favorite is 49-67-4 (42.2%) ATS
Broncos vs. Patriots (-7.5)
Sportsbooks will need Denver over New England on Sunday night. The lookahead line had the Patriots as 4.5-point favorites but after a lackluster performance from the Broncos in Philly on Sunday the Pats opened as 7.5-point favorites. At the time of publication, more than 80% of spread bets have been placed on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Fading the public is a profitable strategy but with the defending champs coming off a bye the squares might be on the winning side, which would be disastrous for the books.
Favorites after a bye
- Home: 88-74-5 (54.3%) ATS
- Road: 54-28-2 (65.9%) ATS