Update 5/15/17

The San Antonio Spurs blew a 25 point lead in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals. The team was up 21 points in the third quarter when Kawhi Leonard injured his ankle and was forced to leave the game. Gregg Popovich says the Spurs star will likely miss Game 2.

The Warriors opened as 12 point favorites but the line jumped to -14 when Kawhi was ruled out. In the last 19 games that Leonard has missed in the last two years, San Antonio is 15-4 straight-up and 10-9 ATS. The UNDER is 11-8 when he misses games.


Originally published on May 10th 2017.

San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard suffered a left ankle injury with 5:37 to play in the third quarter of Game 5. Leonard sat out much of the fourth quarter and all of overtime in the team’s 110-107 win over the Rockets. The Spurs star says he will play in Game 6 but if he doesn’t can San Antonio win?

Kawhi is a two-time All-Star, has made three all-NBA defensive teams and is the reigning back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year. When he misses games the Spurs have a big hole in their lineup. However, San Antonio finds a way to win.

In the last two years, Kawhi has missed 18 games (rest and injury). When he is out, the Spurs have gone 14-4 (77.8%) straight-up. In all games during that time Gregg Popovich’s team is 141-44 (76.2%). With or without Leonard, the Spurs are the Spurs.

The same trend holds from a betting perspective. In all games the last two years the Spurs are 95-87-3 (52.2%) ATS, without Kawhi they are 9-9 (50%) ATS. The UNDER in the last two years is 92-89-1 (50.8%), the UNDER without Kawhi is 10-8.

We only have a small sample of games without Kawhi but if he doesn’t play the Spurs can still win. Whether San Antonio covers or the total goes over or under is a toss up, as it often is when the Spurs play.

Houston opened as 6.5 point favorites in Game 6. At the time of publication, more than 70% of spread bets were on the Rockets and the line had moved to Houston -7.


Celtics vs. Wizards Game 5

There is betting system for this game that is 112-78 (58.9%) ATS

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The Spurs Without Kawhi

DateOpponentWon?Cover?Total?
11/14/1576ersYesNoUnder
12/7/1576ersYesYesUnder
2/18/16ClippersNoNoUnder
2/19/16LakersYesNoOver
2/21/16SunsYesNoUnder
3/25/16GrizzliesYesNoOver
3/26/16ThunderNoNoUnder
3/28/16GrizzliesYesYesUnder
4/8/16NuggetsNoNoOver
4/13/16MavericksYesYesUnder
12/28/16SunsYesYesOver
12/30/16BlazersYesYesOver
1/23/17NetsYesYesUnder
1/24/17RaptorsYesYesOver
2/6/17GrizzliesNoNoUnder
3/8/17KingsYesNoOver
3/11/17WarriorsYesYesUnder
4/7/17MavericksYesYesOver
5/11/17RocketsYesYesUnder