The Houston Rockets shocked the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 winning 126-99. The 27-point margin was the worst home loss for San Antonio in its playoff history. After the surprising result can Gregg Popovich’s team rebound? The Spurs are favored after the blowout, which is good for bettors.

In the regular season, teams that lose by 10 or more points have gone 3551-3482 (50.5%) ATS in the next game. In the playoffs the win rate improves to 245-223 (52.4%) ATS.

Teams do even better against-the-spread if they are favored after a big loss (10 or more points).

Favorites, following a blowout, have gone 109-77 (58.6%) ATS in the postseason since 2005.

We can improve the win rate further by looking at just home teams (like the Spurs) in this situation.

Teams that are favored at home after a blowout have gone 95-65 (59.4%) ATS since 2005.

The Spurs will try to even the series at a game apiece tonight. The public and a majority of the bets are on the Rockets but more than 50% of the spread dollars are backing San Antonio to cover.

Fun Spurs trends

  • After a loss, as home favorites in the next game the Spurs are 74-68 (52.1%) ATS in the regular season.
  • After a loss, as home favorites in the next game the Spurs are 19-11 (63.3%) ATS in the playoffs.
  • After a loss by 10 or more points, as home favorites in the next game the Spurs are 12-5 (70.6%) ATS in the playoffs.

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