The Gamecocks are the Cinderella team of the 2017 NCAA tournament. Upsets over Duke, Baylor and Florida have propelled the school to its first ever Final Four. South Carolina is on a magical run and you might be tempted to place a bet on Frank Martin’s team +950 to win the title. However, before you do, know the more profitable approach is to roll the Gamecocks’ moneyline over from round to round.
This is a simple statement to prove. To start we will assume a $100 bet. South Carolina is currently +246 on the moneyline to beat Gonzaga in the national semifinals. A $100 bet would win $246. A bettor now has $346 total.
In the title game we will assume the Gamecocks will face North Carolina. The Tar Heels are favored over Oregon and are the bookmakers pick to win it all. In a potential title game matchup against UNC, South Carolina is +240 on the lookahead moneylines. Rolling over our previous moneyline bet we wager $346 to win approximately $830. If South Carolina does the unthinkable and is crowned champions a $100 bettor rolling over the moneyline would walk away with $1,176.
If a bettor instead just wagers on the South Carolina future, $100 to win $950, the bettor will have $1,050 in their pocket when its all said and done. That might not sound like much but it is a 12% difference in return.
You could be tempted to bet South Carolina +950 but know it’s more profitable to rollover the moneyline.
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 7 South Carolina
There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 95-64 (60%) ATS