The defending Super Bowl Champions are the favorites in Vegas to win the NFL championship in 2017-18. Tom Brady is the oddsmaker’s choice to win the MVP and New England has the highest win total in the league. The Pats have a chance to be even better this fall with the additions of receiver Brandin Cooks and corner Stephon Gilmore, plus the return of Rob Gronkowski. How likely are the Patriots to repeat?

After 10,000 simulations, there is a 34.6% chance that Brady and Bill Belichick are hoisting the Lombardi Trophy once again. This would be the franchise’s sixth title. The Pats are the favorites but the rest of the league won’t roll over.

The Seattle Seahawks have an 11.7% chance of winning Super Bowl LII. Russell Wilson and the Legion of Boom have won at least 10 games in each of the last five years and have made the playoffs every year since 2012.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10.4%) and Green Bay Packers (9.3%) have the second-best odds to win the title in the AFC and NFC respectively. With Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers under center both squads are always in the championship conversation.

Outstanding rookie seasons from Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott powered Dallas to the No. 1 seed in the NFC last year. Cowboys fans are hoping the dynamic duo, behind one of the best lines in football, can improve upon a 13-win campaign. The ‘Boys have a 6.0% chance of winning the team’s first championship since 1995.

The Falcons have had an entire offseason to think about their brutal loss in Super Bowl 51, the team will look to ride MVP Matt Ryan to a title. Atlanta has a 4.9% chance of avenging their loss last season.

The least likely teams to win the Super Bowl are the 49ers, Browns, Jets and Bears. For a league that prides itself on parity, 18 franchises have less than a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl this year.

Math says the Pats will win again this year but sometimes numbers lie.

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2017 Super Bowl Probabilities

TeamWin ConferenceWin Super Bowl
New England Patriots50.934.6
Seattle Seahawks25.411.7
Pittsburgh Steelers18.210.4
Green Bay Packers20.89.3
Dallas Cowboys13.66
Atlanta Falcons11.24.9
Oakland Raiders84
Carolina Panthers7.42.9
Kansas City Chiefs52.5
Baltimore Ravens3.51.6
New York Giants4.41.5
Tennessee Titans3.31.4
Minnesota Vikings3.41.1
Houston Texans2.41
Arizona Cardinals3.10.9
Philadelphia Eagles2.70.9
Cincinnati Bengals2.50.9
Indianapolis Colts2.20.9
New Orleans Saints2.50.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2.10.8
Denver Broncos1.60.6
Washington Redskins1.60.5
Detroit Lions1.50.4
Los Angeles Chargers10.3
Miami Dolphins0.50.2
Jacksonville Jaguars0.40.2
Buffalo Bills0.30.1
Los Angeles Rams0.20.07
Chicago Bears0.10.01
New York Jets0.030.01
Cleveland Browns0.010.01
San Francisco 49ers0.010