According to the Opening Line Report from Sports Insights, the Bucs were positioned as 4.5-point favorites in the lookahead lines at the Westgate for their Week 10 matchup against the Jets. A week later New York is 2.5-point favorites on the road in Tampa. What happened? Gang Green upset the Bills in primetime, Jameis Winston got hurt and Mike Evans is suspended.
A 7-point line move has attracted the attention of recreational bettors and professionals. Sharps-Squares disagree on Bucs vs. Jets, which side should you bet?
At the time of publication, more than 70% of spread bets are on New York. It is easy to understand why casual fans are laying the points with the Jets. Josh McCown has led the team to a surprise 4-5 record, even better the Jets are 6-2-1 ATS (2nd most profitable team in 2017). Tampa is down a starting quarterback and Pro Bowl receiver and has lost five straight. The Bucs bigger sin is that the team is 1-6-1 ATS (worst in the NFL).
Last week, we looked at whether a team’s ATS record in the first half of the season was predictive of 2nd half ATS success. Spoiler, it isn’t. Teams tend to regress to the mean and public bettors chasing the Jets first half ATS success are likely to be disappointed over the team’s final seven games.
Not only are the Jets likely to regress against-the-spread but there has been reverse line movement on Tampa and we have two Pro Systems that like the Bucs as well.
Teams after big loss to good team
This Pro System has gone 106-61-6 (63.5%) ATS, +38.96 units since 2003.
The Bucs are on a losing streak and looked awful in 30-10 drubbing against the Saints. Teams off a blowout (20 or more points) are undervalued having gone 385-324-17 (54.3%) ATS since 2003. The win rate and ROI improves if the loss came against a good team (New Orleans is 6-2). Tampa is a great buy low opportunity. Recreational bettors are chasing the Jets but sharp action is on the Bucs.
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