By Chad Millman
The Greatest At Anything Ever
You may say that is typical hot-take hyperbole. I say it’s fact, proven by numbers such as these, outlined in our weekly QB breakdown: Watson sports a league-leading 19 TDs and 269 rushing yards for a QB and 100.0 percent consistency ratings. He’s the No. 1 fantasy QB with 29.36 DK points and 28.36 FanDuel ppg and the only rookie QB to throw for more than 12 TDs in his first seven games. At this pace he will shatter the rookie record for TD passes of 26, held by Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson, by 17. With a salivating matchup vs. the Colts on deck, Watson will be a chalky DFS play, despite his lofty price tag.
BILLS VS. JETS
FReminder, we noted early in the week that this would be one of the most interesting games for bettors. And, newsflash, we were right! It’s a classic pros vs. joes game. With the public piling on the Bills, because — all together know — the public bets what it just saw. And it saw the Bills beat the Raiders. Meanwhile, the sharps like getting a home dog, even when that dog is the Jets. The result? A large majority of the tickets are on the Bills, and yet, they moved from 3.5-point favorites to 3.
There’s Always Next Year
We at The Action Network are steely-eyed, calculating realists. We do not celebrate victories, wallow in defeat or spend too much time reflecting. And we will not confirm that we cried just a little bit when Carlos Correa proposed after the ‘Stros won Game 7. But, the truth is, now that one of the greatest World Series is over, it’s time to look ahead. At this time last year, as the Cubs were celebrating their first championship in 108 years, the Houston Astros’ odds to win the 2017 World Series were plus-1200. Congrats to anyone holding that ticket (we see you @JPerm47!) The champagne corks hadn’t even been popped in L.A. before we turned our eyes to the 2018 Fall Classic. BetOnline gives the Dodgers the best odds at plus-450, with the Astrosright behind them at plus-600. Rematch, anyone?
What’s the old adage in DFS? You can’t score if you’re not in the game (™, copyright, show me the merch, baby!) Well, in Bryan Mears’ always excellent Market Share report, he makes it clear that you only have one choice at running back this weekend for DFS slates. The four running backs with the highest rushing shares over the past four games are Kareem Hunt (91.8 percent), Le’Veon Bell (89.2 percent), Ezekiel Elliott (85.2 percent), and Jay Ajayi (84.5 percent). Bell is out (bye), as is Zeke (suspension), and Ajayi is not on the main slate because his trade from Miami to Philly occurred after salaries were released. For future weeks, we’ll want to monitor how the Dallas, Miami, and Philadelphia backfields take shape. For this week, Hunt is the only member of the quartet rosterable in the main slate — and the Chiefs-Cowboys game has a slate-high over/under of 51.0 points.
VIRGINIA TECH VS. MIAMI
Let The Buy Back Begin
This is one we’ve been tracking since Sunday night, when Collin Wilson noted that the line opened Hokies plus-3.5 and was bet so big by wiseguys it moved to Hokies minus-3.5, at Miami. Well, it is now the most bet college football game on the board. And the wiseguys have started buying back the Canes, who are now just 2.5-point dogs.
The Zags’ Biggest Repeat Challenge
It’s so easy to forget in the middle of zany World Series bets and exciting Bill-Jets tilts that the college hoops season is nearly upon us. And it is as fickle as it’s ever been. While the Zags nearly won a national title last year, we’re wondering, can they win their own conference this season? Because anytime your rival is led by a an All-American candidate named Jock, as in St. Mary’s Jock Landale, there’s trouble. All Londale did last year on a per-minute basis was lead the WCC in usage, finish second in shot rate, first in offensive rebounding and second in defensive rebounding rates, seventh in block rate, third in contact rate — and he shot 61 percent from the field. Ho hum. But when your name is Jock, a lot is given, and a lot is expected.
PROP OF THE DAY
Last Man Standing
It was bound to happen. This one from BetOnline:
Who will leave office first: Donald Trump as President? Minus-500. Or Roger Goodell as NFL Commish? Plus-350.
Originally posted on The Action Network – Subscribe to the newsletter!