Name the best team in the NFC. If you said the Eagles, with an NFL-best 8-1 record, you’re wrong. The streaking Saints are tops in the conference according to our Power Rankings. Winners of seven straight, New Orleans is dominating with defense and the run game.
As Matthew Freedman points out in his Week 11 Vegas Report, the Saints defense is No. 1 in Opponent Plus/Minus (+5.5) and has gone from 30th last year in Football Outsiders’ DVOA to 4th. New Orleans is no longer reliant on Drew Brees’ arm, through nine games Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have combined for 1,089 rushing yards.
Trophies aren’t passed out midway through the season, while Brees and the Saints have been rolling, it’s the Eagles that have the best chance to win the Super Bowl in the NFC.
Philly can all but clinch their division with a win over the Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday. The Eagles are the most likely team in football to get a first round bye (69.0%) and home field advantage (45.4%). There is no reason to think the team will regress if Carson Wentz, leads the league in touchdown passes and is 3rd in QBR, continues to play like an MVP. Philadelphia has a 13.8% chance to win the Super Bowl, edging out New Orleans (11.0%).
It might not matter which team emerges from the NFC, like Travis Reed noted in his Power Rankings piece, every team is chasing the Patriots.
Here is everything else you need to know after Week 10. Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017-18 season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule.
Tennessee Titans (+17.3% increase in playoff probability): Tennessee rallied to beat Cincinnati 24-20 on Sunday, it was the team’s fourth consecutive victory. The Titans are first in the AFC South but we give Marcus Mariota’s team just a 17.9% chance to win the division. So, back-to-back losses by the Bills, Tennessee’s main competition for a Wild Card, improved their playoff probability.
New Orleans Saints (+8.8% increase in playoff probability): Before the season began, New Orleans was projected to go 8-8 and had a 29.4% chance to make the playoffs. After matching last year’s win total in just nine games, the Saints have the 5th best odds to reach the postseason.
Dallas Cowboys (-29.4% decrease in playoff probability): After a loss to the Falcons, Sunday’s matchup against the Eagles is must-win. Dallas struggled without left tackle Tyron Smith and linebacker Sean Lee. If Jason Garrett can’t adjust to the losses the Cowboys are in danger of missing the postseason a year after getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Week 10: Cowboys vs. Eagles
This Pro System is 142-89-4 (61.5%) ATS since 2003
Buffalo Bills (-20.8% decrease in playoff probability): It wasn’t that long ago that the Bills were in our most likely playoff after starting 5-2. A disappointing loss to the Jets and a humiliating defeat to the Saints has made Buffalo a longshot to get back to the postseason. It has been 17 seasons since the team reached the playoffs.
Most likely AFC Playoff teams:
- Steelers 99.3%
- Patriots 99.2%
- Jaguars 98.7%
- Chiefs 96.3%
- Titans 74.8%
- Ravens 58.3%
Most likely NFC Playoff teams:
- Eagles 97.4%
- Saints 89.8%
- Vikings 86.2%
- Seahawks 85.6%
- Rams 84.9%
- Panthers 63.9%
Odds to get 1st Pick
- Browns 60.8%
- 49ers 24.6%
- Giants 13.5%
Thanks to the 49ers win over the Giants last Sunday, Cleveland is now a clear favorite to get the top pick in the draft. If that happens, the Browns will be the first team since the Bengals in 1994-95 to pick first in back-to-back years (per ESPN).
Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
|Team||Division Winner||Make Playoffs||Win Super Bowl|
|New England Patriots||95.98||99.21||18.94|
|New Orleans Saints||71.79||89.8||10.97|
|Los Angeles Rams||46.98||84.86||7.47|
|Kansas City Chiefs||94.03||96.25||7.1|
|Los Angeles Chargers||1.72||6.33||0.08|
|Green Bay Packers||2.21||4.57||0.01|
|New York Jets||0.01||3.06||0.01|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||0.05||0.41||0.01|
|San Francisco 49ers||0||0||0|
|New York Giants||0||0||0|