Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone Sunday in a 23-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers say he could miss the remainder of the season.

At Bookmaker, Green Bay’s Super Bowl odds have gone from 7/1 to 25/1. The betting markets are also down on the Cheeseheads’ chances of beating New Orleans on Sunday. Last week the Westgate listed the Packers as 6.5-point favorites at home over New Orleans. After the injury, the Saints are now 6-point favorites in Lambeau.

Rodgers is out, should bettors fade the Packers in Week 7?

The last time Rodgers missed a game was Week 9 in 2013 after breaking the collarbone on his other shoulder. Green Bay was a 1-point underdog to the Chicago Bears in the next game and lost 27-20. How have other teams performed when trying to replace their starting quarterback?

To answer this question, I looked at the first game after a starting quarterback was injured since 2013 (when Rodgers last got hurt). I ignored injury situations to quarterbacks that have no value to the spread.

Since 2013, in the first game after a quarterback with value to the spread is injured teams have gone 19-26-1 ATS. As you might expect, teams that have good quarterbacks struggle when they don’t play.

However, there is a stark difference when the team is favored or getting points. In games where the spread is a pick’em or the team is favored without their starting quarterback teams have gone 4-12 ATS. If the team is an underdog the week after losing their starter: 15-14 ATS.

As of Monday afternoon, more than 60% of spread bets and 90% of spread dollars are backing the Saints as road favorites. If you bet New Orleans last week (+6.5) before Rodgers was injured you are sitting pretty but the oddsmakers have adjusted the line to reflect for the absence of the future Hall of Fame quarterback. Green Bay is worse without Rodgers but it doesn’t guarantee they’ll lose by a touchdown or more at home on Sunday.

Teams after QB Injury since 2013

QuarterbackYearGame MissedSpreadWonCovered
Marcus Mariota201750NoNo
Derek Carr20175-3NoNo
Sam Bradford201728.5NoNo
Anderw Luck201713.5NoNo
Derek Carr2016161NoNo
Ryan Tannehill201614-2.5YesYes
Ryan Fitzpatrick2016133YesYes
Anderw Luck2016118.5NoNo
Jay Cutler2016116.5NoYes
Ryan Fitzpatrick2016101NoNo
Alex Smith20168-7YesNo
Ben Roethlisberger201677.5NoNo
Carson Palmer20165-3.5YesYes
Cam Newton20165-6NoNo
Jay Cutler201636.5NoNo
Tom Brady201619YesYes
Tony Romo20161-1NoNo
Marcus Mariota2015153.5NoNo
Andy Dalton201514-7YesYes
Tony Romo2015122YesYes
Joe Flacco2015116YesYes
Anderw Luck2015103.5YesYes
Peyton Manning201510-2.5YesNo
Sam Bradford201510-7NoNo
Marcus Mariota201565.5NoYes
Tyrod Taylor201563NoNo
Ben Roethlisberger201543NoPush
Anderw Luck20154-4YesNo
Jay Cutler2015316.5NoNo
Drew Brees2015310NoYes
Tony Romo20153-1NoNo
Jay Cutler20141510NoYes
Cam Newton201414-3.5YesNo
Carson Palmer2014101YesYes
Tony Romo20149-1.5NoNo
Nick Foles20149-7YesYes
Teddy Bridgewater201458.5NoNo
Robert Griffin III201434YesYes
Carson Palmer201421YesYes
Cam Newton201415.5YesYes
Jay Cutler201310-4YesNo
Aaron Rodgers201391NoNo
Jay Cutler2013810YesYes
Sam Bradford201383NoNo
Matt Schaub201377NoYes