Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone Sunday in a 23-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers say he could miss the remainder of the season.
— Steelers Depot (@Steelersdepot) October 15, 2017
At Bookmaker, Green Bay’s Super Bowl odds have gone from 7/1 to 25/1. The betting markets are also down on the Cheeseheads’ chances of beating New Orleans on Sunday. Last week the Westgate listed the Packers as 6.5-point favorites at home over New Orleans. After the injury, the Saints are now 6-point favorites in Lambeau.
Rodgers is out, should bettors fade the Packers in Week 7?
The last time Rodgers missed a game was Week 9 in 2013 after breaking the collarbone on his other shoulder. Green Bay was a 1-point underdog to the Chicago Bears in the next game and lost 27-20. How have other teams performed when trying to replace their starting quarterback?
To answer this question, I looked at the first game after a starting quarterback was injured since 2013 (when Rodgers last got hurt). I ignored injury situations to quarterbacks that have no value to the spread.
Since 2013, in the first game after a quarterback with value to the spread is injured teams have gone 19-26-1 ATS. As you might expect, teams that have good quarterbacks struggle when they don’t play.
However, there is a stark difference when the team is favored or getting points. In games where the spread is a pick’em or the team is favored without their starting quarterback teams have gone 4-12 ATS. If the team is an underdog the week after losing their starter: 15-14 ATS.
As of Monday afternoon, more than 60% of spread bets and 90% of spread dollars are backing the Saints as road favorites. If you bet New Orleans last week (+6.5) before Rodgers was injured you are sitting pretty but the oddsmakers have adjusted the line to reflect for the absence of the future Hall of Fame quarterback. Green Bay is worse without Rodgers but it doesn’t guarantee they’ll lose by a touchdown or more at home on Sunday.
Teams after QB Injury since 2013
|Robert Griffin III||2014||3||4||Yes||Yes|