The semifinals in the WNBA playoffs start tonight. Top seeded Minnesota Lynx (-9.5) host the Washington Mystics and the second seed Los Angeles Spark (-9) will welcome the Phoenix Mercury to Hollywood. Each team is three wins away from the Finals but Minnesota and Los Angeles are clear favorites to advance.
The Lynx are -1375 to win their series and the Sparks are -1165 over the Mercury (5Dimes). Minnesota and Los Angeles will be big spread favorites in each game, including on the road.
Minnesota was a 7.5-point favorite against the Mystics in Washington in June, won 98-73. The Sparks were 6-point favorites in late August on the road against the Mercury (won 82-67).
Let’s hope each team is a road favorite once again in the playoffs. It has been profitable betting road favorites in the WNBA playoffs.
The sample is small but the results have been consistent. This system has only one losing against-the-spread postseason.
Casual bettors likely see a home underdog in the playoffs and think the teams are evenly matched so you might as well take the points. That’s just not the case, since 2005 betting road favorites in the playoffs has gone 22-10 (69%) ATS, +10.86 units.
Game 3 in each series takes place Sunday. If the road teams are favored, there is value.
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All NFL and NCAAF Pro System picks are +18.26 units in 2017