No team has officially clinched a playoff berth in the AFC. With four games remaining we are confident the Patriots and Steelers will reach the postseason but what about the rest of the field?
Bovada is offering prop bets on five teams (Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers and Raiders) to make or miss the playoffs. After 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season, here is how to bet these props.
Baltimore Ravens – Make
Current odds: -120, Implied Probability: 54.5%
Ravens make the playoffs 90.2% of the time
Joe Flacco has led the Ravens to seven wins this season, none of which have come against teams with a winning record. If this article was about Baltimore’s chance of winning the Super Bowl I’d be concerned but it’s not. The team’s three game winning streak has pushed its playoff probability to 90.2%. Sunday’s matchup against the Steelers is tough but they finish the year against the Browns, Colts and Bengals. There is a 67.9% chance the Ravens win 10 or more games. The oddsmakers are overlooking Baltimore. Act quickly before the line moves again. Yesterday, Flacco and Co. were +150 to make the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs – Make
Current odds: -110, Implied Probability: 52.4%
Chiefs make the playoffs 59.5% of the time
A quick recap of the Kansas City’s last seven games:
The Chiefs have lost six of seven squandering a 5-0 start. Early in the season Andy Reid’s team had a 95.0% chance of making the playoffs, that’s down to 59.5% after four straight losses. It looks bleak but KC is actually in a good spot (all things considered). The Chiefs hold a tiebreaker over the Chargers and in the division with their 2-1 record. They get both Oakland and Los Angeles at home before hosting Miami and finishing the season on the road in Mile High. The AFC West is sending one team to the playoffs, even with their prolonged slide, Alex Smith and the Chiefs are the most likely team.
Week 14: Chiefs vs. Raiders
Over/Under Pro System for this game that is 62% since 2005
Los Angeles Chargers – Miss
Current odds: -160, Implied Probability: 61.5%
Chargers miss the playoffs 65.0% of the time
The Bolts have been winning (6 of their last 8) thanks to turnovers. The Philip Rivers-led offense hasn’t given the ball away in three games while the defense is 4th in takeaways this season (21) giving the team the third best turnover differential in football (+11). The Chargers most likely record with four games to play is 9-7 based on our 10,000 simulations. That is impressive given the team started the season 0-4. Los Angeles has better than a 60% chance of winning three of its last four games. The one matchup that they are projected underdogs – Week 15 in Kansas City. A loss to the Chiefs knocks the Chargers out of the playoff race.
NFL Playoff Odds and Probabilities
|Team||Make (Bovada)||Miss||Proj. Chance Make|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-110||-130||59.5%|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+120||-160||35.0%|