For the most part, college football teams get one bye week, just like the pros. The extra rest gives players a chance to recover from injuries and affords coaches additional time to prepare for upcoming opponents. Sounds like a win but the bye could also cause a team to come out flat by getting out of its routine. What do bettors need to know about bye weeks in college football?
For starters, teams off a bye have gone 834-802 (51.0%) ATS since 2005. Don’t rush out to bet every team with extra days between games. However, if we focus on just ranked teams after a bye we see a significant improvement.
Ranked teams after a bye have covered the spread 54.2% of the time since 2005. Top 25 teams are the best programs in the country with superior athletes, facilities and coaching staffs. These are teams capable of putting the extra time to recover and game plan to good use.
Bettors can further capitalize on ranked teams after a bye if their next game is at home.
Ranked teams at home following a bye have cover the spread 59.7% of the time.
This is a simple system with a decent sample size and consistent winning results. On Saturday, No. 10 Wisconsin hosts Northwestern at Camp Randall Stadium. The Badgers are 14.5-point favorites over the West Division foe Wildcats. Bets are evenly split but smart money should back the home favorite.
If you are hesitant about placing this bet because Northwestern is also off a bye, ranked home teams off a bye facing an opponent off a bye: 19-11 (63.3%) ATS, +6.92 units since 2005.
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