It’s only December but it feels like March with the rash of upsets in college basketball. On Tuesday, No. 9 Notre Dame fell to Ball State 80-77. Then last night a pair of top 10 teams went down. No. 2 Kansas lost 74-65 to Washington and No. 5 Florida stumbled at home losing 65-59 to Loyola-Chicago.
Kansas was 21.5-point favorites vs. Washington.
Florida 16.5-point favorites vs. Loyola-Chicago
Both lost straight-up at home. pic.twitter.com/fnKfnLgm2G
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) December 7, 2017
These were winnable games, must-win if you’re a true Final Four contender. The Irish, Jayhawks and Gators were all favored by at least 16-points against inferior competition but managed to embarrass themselves.
Their failures cost gamblers. At least 67% of spread tickets were on the chalk in each game. You might think casual bettors would shy away from ranked teams that lost outright as big favorites but you’d be wrong. In the next game, more than 70% of bets come in on the Top 25 team that lost.
The public expects a bounce back, will bettors be rewarded or burned for a second straight game?
Using Bet Labs historical database, we find that ranked teams off a loss as a double-digit favorite to an unranked opponent have gone 72-88-4 (45%) ATS since 2005 in their next game. Betting on Top 25 teams to rebound after a bad loss has cost $100 bettors -$1,974.
The results get worse if the team plays its next game away from home: 36-51-2 (41.4%) ATS. Florida is set to face Cincinnati in the Never Forget Tribute Classic and Notre Dame plays Delaware in Newark.
If you wagered on the Irish, Jayhawks or Gators and lost, be careful trying to get your money back when they play this weekend.
Week 14: Chiefs vs. Raiders
Over/Under Pro System for this game that is 62% since 2005