Something has to give.

The Rangers are good. Winners of seven straight, Texas has the best record in the AL at 46-25, which is also the franchise’s best record ever through 71 games. The club has won ten straight series, the longest such streak in the American League since Tampa Bay won ten in a row three years ago.

How is last year’s AL West champions so thoroughly dominating? With a bit of luck. Texas is 17-4 in one-run games, the most in the majors, and has 23 come-from-behind wins this season. Which has inspired the hashtag #NeverEverQuit. The Rangers are also bene­­ficiaries of cluster luck (the ability to string together or prevent consecutive hits).

All of this winning has been great for Texas fans or for bettors who blindly backed the Rangers.

Screen Shot 2016-06-21 at 10.14.37 AM

Betting on Texas has been very profitable. Money-line bettors would have made $2,832 taking the Rangers each game. The Cubs (+$662) and Giants (+$778), teams with similar winning percentages, haven’t been nearly as profitable.

The scorching-hot Rangers are set to begin a two-game interleague series against Cincinnati tonight. The Reds are 16 games under .500 and comfortably in last place in the NL Central. All signs point toward another win for Texas and an easy money-line cash. Or so one would think.

However, using our Bet Labs software a system has emerged that points to taking the Reds. A tried and true strategy (lucrative) in sports wagering is betting against the public. In this case we are going to fade the Rangers (81 percent of wagers are on Texas to win). There are other factors that contribute to backing Cincy tonight, for a full explanation read our 2016 MLB Betting Against the Public Report.

It is hard to be contrarian but it is time to zig while the public is zagging. No one expects the Rangers to lose tonight, which means it’s a perfect time to jump on the Reds.