Ten years ago, the NFL played its first game in London. This year the league will stage four games across the pond. Two have already been played with the third slated for Week 7 (Rams vs. Cardinals). After a decade of games there should be some interesting trends, right? Not really.
A 19-game sample is still rather small. Favorites are 12-7 ATS, the team getting a majority of spread bets have gone 9-10 ATS and the OVER is 11-8. Favorites and the Over, the casual bettors preferred wager, have been profitable but it’s dangerous to draw strong conclusions from small samples.
An interesting trend our friends at SportsAction found emerges if you look at how teams have played the game before traveling internationally. In the game prior to the London trip, teams are 12-25-1 (32.4%) ATS.
This trend has been consistent too. From 2007 to 2013 it went 5-11 (31.3%) ATS and from 2014 to 2017 it is 7-14-1 (33.3%) ATS. Why has it been profitable to fade teams before they make the trip to “Jolly old England”?
I don’t know. Perhaps teams get distracted planning for a trip across the pond or the change in routine has a negative impact. If you buy into either theory, we got more than two years’ worth of data that points to betting against teams before their trip aboard.
The Rams are headed to London in Week 7, bet against L.A. in Week 6. Arizona also has their passport ready and are worth a fade as well.
NFL Pro Systems
All NFL picks are 34-21 (61.8%), +10.46 units in 2017