Back in August we evaluated every team’s season win total to determine the best value bets. Based on our simulations, the Jets and Jags were two teams that would exceed expectations while the Bucs and Broncos would disappoint. After eight weeks, we look like geniuses!

New York and Jacksonville are on pace to go OVER their season win totals and Tampa Bay and Denver have losing records and are projected to go UNDER their respective Vegas win total.

Based on our most recent NFL simulation, here is how each team’s projected win total has changed heading into Week 9.

TeamWin TotalPreseason ProjectionUpdated Projection
Arizona Cardinals89-76-10
Atlanta Falcons9.59-79-7
Baltimore Ravens99-79-7
Buffalo Bills67-910-6
Carolina Panthers8.59-710-6
Chicago Bears5.55-116-10
Cincinnati Bengals8.59-77-9
Cleveland Browns4.54-122-14
Dallas Cowboys9.510-69-7
Denver Broncos8.57-97-9
Detroit Lions87-98-8
Green Bay Packers1010-68-8
Houston Texans8.58-88-8
Indianapolis Colts98-84-12
Jacksonville Jaguars67-910-6
Kansas City Chiefs99-711-5
Los Angeles Chargers7.57-97-9
Los Angeles Rams5.56-1010-6
Miami Dolphins7.57-97-9
Minnesota Vikings8.58-811-5
New England Patriots12.513-312-4
New Orleans Saints88-810-6
New York Giants98-85-11
New York Jets4.54-125-11
Oakland Raiders109-77-9
Philadelphia Eagles88-812-4
Pittsburgh Steelers10.511-512-4
San Francisco 49ers4.55-112-14
Seattle Seahawks10.511-511-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8.58-86-10
Tennessee Titans8.59-79-7
Washington Redskins7.57-97-9

The Rams are crushing their season win total. Los Angeles’ record has completely flipped. We projected the Rams to go 6-10, now Jared Goff has them looking like a 10-6 team. The four additional wins is a 66.7% increase from the preseason. Technically, the Rams could still finish 6-10 but there is just a 1.3% chance that occurs.

Philly is also projected to win four more games than expected. The Eagles most likely record is 12-4, which is tied with the Patriots and Steelers for the best record in the NFL.

San Francisco is the biggest disappointment. Expectations were low in the Bay area coming into the season but the Niners are flirting with 0-16 (4.7% chance). When Kyle Shanahan took over the 49ers were projected to be a bad team (5-11), now the most likely record is 2-14.

The Cardinals, Giants and Colts have also underwhelmed. Each team’s projected record has decreased by at least 3 wins. To be fair, our numbers were off on Indy because we assumed Andrew Luck would be back before Week 8.

Using our current simulations, here are the teams that will go OVER and UNDER their season win total.

OverUnder
Buffalo BillsArizona Cardinals
Carolina PanthersAtlanta Falcons
Chicago BearsBaltimore Ravens
Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati Bengals
Kansas City ChiefsCleveland Browns
Los Angeles RamsDallas Cowboys
Minnesota VikingsDenver Broncos
New Orleans SaintsDetroit Lions
New York JetsGreen Bay Packers
Philadelphia EaglesHouston Texans
Pittsburgh SteelersIndianapolis Colts
Seattle SeahawksLos Angeles Chargers
Tennessee TitansMiami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
San Francisco 49ers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins