Back in August we evaluated every team’s season win total to determine the best value bets. Based on our simulations, the Jets and Jags were two teams that would exceed expectations while the Bucs and Broncos would disappoint. After eight weeks, we look like geniuses!
New York and Jacksonville are on pace to go OVER their season win totals and Tampa Bay and Denver have losing records and are projected to go UNDER their respective Vegas win total.
Based on our most recent NFL simulation, here is how each team’s projected win total has changed heading into Week 9.
|Team||Win Total||Preseason Projection||Updated Projection|
|Green Bay Packers||10||10-6||8-8|
|Kansas City Chiefs||9||9-7||11-5|
|Los Angeles Chargers||7.5||7-9||7-9|
|Los Angeles Rams||5.5||6-10||10-6|
|New England Patriots||12.5||13-3||12-4|
|New Orleans Saints||8||8-8||10-6|
|New York Giants||9||8-8||5-11|
|New York Jets||4.5||4-12||5-11|
|San Francisco 49ers||4.5||5-11||2-14|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||8.5||8-8||6-10|
The Rams are crushing their season win total. Los Angeles’ record has completely flipped. We projected the Rams to go 6-10, now Jared Goff has them looking like a 10-6 team. The four additional wins is a 66.7% increase from the preseason. Technically, the Rams could still finish 6-10 but there is just a 1.3% chance that occurs.
Philly is also projected to win four more games than expected. The Eagles most likely record is 12-4, which is tied with the Patriots and Steelers for the best record in the NFL.
San Francisco is the biggest disappointment. Expectations were low in the Bay area coming into the season but the Niners are flirting with 0-16 (4.7% chance). When Kyle Shanahan took over the 49ers were projected to be a bad team (5-11), now the most likely record is 2-14.
The Cardinals, Giants and Colts have also underwhelmed. Each team’s projected record has decreased by at least 3 wins. To be fair, our numbers were off on Indy because we assumed Andrew Luck would be back before Week 8.
Using our current simulations, here are the teams that will go OVER and UNDER their season win total.
|Buffalo Bills||Arizona Cardinals|
|Carolina Panthers||Atlanta Falcons|
|Chicago Bears||Baltimore Ravens|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||Cincinnati Bengals|
|Kansas City Chiefs||Cleveland Browns|
|Los Angeles Rams||Dallas Cowboys|
|Minnesota Vikings||Denver Broncos|
|New Orleans Saints||Detroit Lions|
|New York Jets||Green Bay Packers|
|Philadelphia Eagles||Houston Texans|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||Indianapolis Colts|
|Seattle Seahawks||Los Angeles Chargers|
|Tennessee Titans||Miami Dolphins|
|New England Patriots|
|New York Giants|
|San Francisco 49ers|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers|