Alabama fell to Auburn 26-14 in the Iron Bowl. The loss not only knocked the Tide out of the SEC Championship game and potentially the College Football Playoff but burned bettors. Late steam pounded Bama Saturday afternoon, a majority of spread tickets and 63% of spread dollars took the road favorites.

The Crimson Tide will have a chance to redeem themselves, whether in the playoffs or a marquee bowl game but the public can’t trust Nick Saban after a loss.

Saban came to Tuscaloosa in 2007. In his first season the Tide lost six games. The program has only faltered 14 times since including Saturday’s defeat. Four of the losses occurred in the last game of the season but fifteen times Alabama played at least one more game that season. In the next game after a loss, Saban and Bama have been bad bets.

DateOpponentSpreadWon?Covered?
9/26/15UL Monroe-37.5YesNo
10/11/14Arkansas-8.5YesNo
1/2/14Oklahoma-17NoNo
11/17/12Western Carolina-55.5YesNo
11/12/11Mississippi St-18YesNo
1/1/11Michigan State-7.5YesYes
11/13/10Mississippi St-13YesYes
10/16/10Mississippi-20YesNo
1/2/09Utah-9.5NoNo
12/30/07Colorado-4.5YesYes
11/24/07Auburn6NoNo
11/17/07UL Monroe-23.5NoNo
11/10/07Mississippi St-3.5NoNo
10/6/07Houston -10.5YesNo
9/29/07Florida State2.5NoNo

Under Saban, Alabama is 9-6 straight-up and 3-12 ATS following a loss (in the same season). For recreational bettors, this is a travesty. Many casual fans expect the Tide to bounce back after a defeat. Bama has received more than 50% of spread tickets in 12 of the 15 games.

It’s a small sample but it follows a larger trend. Top 25 teams after a loss are 269-323-16 (45.4%) ATS since 2005. Bama’s fate is out of their hands but wagering on the Tide after a loss is your decision. History suggests that Saban and Top 25 teams that lost their previous game, like Alabama, are overrated.


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