In a Week 12 matchup between the Falcons and Bucs, Mt. Saint Julio erupted. Matt Ryan’s favorite target had 12 receptions for 253 yards and two touchdowns. The star receiver helped Atlanta blow by Tampa 34-20, going over the total of 47.
Bettors remember the high-scoring affair and are expecting another shootout. The total opened 47.5 and with nearly 90% of dollars on the over, the line has moved to 48.5. In the Action Network’s Monday Night Football preview, NFL expert Stuckey noted that the Bucs defense ranks dead last in yards per play, passing yards, sacks, adjusted sack rate, and opponent third-down conversion. It certainly appears that Matty Ice and Julio could have another big day but consider this trend before placing a bet on the over:
If the line increases in a high-total game during the second half of the season, the under has gone 152-111-5 (57.8%) since 2005. If the game features two division rivals, the under is 59-36 (62.1%) and goes under by more than a field goal.
Did you know offensive output is down across the league? Teams are averaging 22.1 points per game, the lowest mark since 2010. Pass attempts, per Pro-Football-Reference, have also dropped to its lowest total (34.2) since 2011. With scoring down, under bettors following this system have gone 14-7 in 2017.
The over is attracting recreational bets, as if often does, but we’ve seen a reverse line movement bet signal triggered at CRIS, a sharp book. The public is cheering for points, just don’t be surprised if the Falcons-Bucs come up short of the high total.