The Premier League will welcome new teams for the 2017-18 season. Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield were all promoted from the EFL Championship. Whatever you do, don’t bet promoted clubs. They will kill your bankroll.
Why is betting promoted clubs bad? For starters, these aren’t good teams. Promotion in soccer is a process where teams are transferred between two divisions based on their performance from the previous season. The best teams in the lower division are promoted to the higher division the next season. It would kind of be like teams moving between the minor leagues and major leagues in baseball. A Triple-A team would struggle vs. MLB regulars.
In the last 5 years, no team promoted from the Championship to the Premier League has had a winning record. Combined these squads have gone 140-429 (24.6%) in their first season back in top flight division of English soccer.
Betting promoted teams has been a losing proposition. These clubs have cost bettors 90.44 units on the moneyline.
Fading these teams is the right play. Since 2012, a bettor would be up +10.62 units wagering against the three promoted teams each season.
If you are a fan of Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield, congratulations on the promotion. Now be smart and don’t bet these clubs to win in the Premier League.
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|2014||Queens Park Rangers||8-30||-13.65|
|2012||West Ham United||12-25||-4.28|