On Wednesday afternoon, CG Technology released betting lines for every NFL game from Week 1 to Week 16. Due to the unpredictability (injuries/resting starters) of Week 17 the sportsbook did not release lines for the final game of the season. Still, these spreads give us additional information about each team and the expectations the oddsmakers have for them in 2017. Using the point spreads we can project 2017 NFL win totals.
In order to project win totals we converted each spread into a moneyline, then each moneyline into a win probability. For example, the Patriots are 7-point favorites at home against the Chiefs in Week 1. A team favored by seven points has a 71.6% chance of winning. After that we simply summed each team’s chance of winning all 16 games to get a projected win total. We created a spread for Week 17 based on the previous divisional matchup and then adjusted for home field advantage (six point swing). For example, the Chiefs are 3-point favorites at home against the Broncos in Week 8. In Week 17 Denver hosts Kansas City so we made the Broncos 3-point favorites.
After crunching all the numbers, here is what you need to know.
The Patriots have the highest projected win total at 11.3 games. New England has won 12 or more games in seven straight years and is favored by more than a touchdown on average in every game this season.
The Seahawks, Cowboys, Packers and Steelers are the only other teams with double-digit win totals. Each team also won 10 or more games in 2016. The Falcons, Super bowl runner-up, has a projected win total of 9.6 games.
The bottom of the league in terms of projected win total looks a lot like last season. The Browns and 49ers will look to compete for the top pick in the draft once again.
Even though Cleveland and San Francisco combined to win three games in 2016 each will have bigger win totals heading into this fall. The Jags, Niners and Browns each see an improvement of three or more games over the number of contests the franchises won last year.
The Chiefs and Raiders could take steps back in 2017. Kansas City and Oakland both won 12 games but they have projected win totals of under 9 games.
Based on these projected win totals here are the most likely playoff teams.
|Ravens or Titans||Vikings or Giants|
The oddsmakers will likely release win totals for each team after the draft is over. Once the lines are out we will compare them to our projected win totals and see how we did.
2017 Project NFL Win Totals
|Team||2016 Win Total||2016 Wins||Projected 2017 Win Total|
|New England Patriots||10.5||14||11.3|
|Green Bay Packers||10.5||10||10.1|
|Kansas City Chiefs||9.5||12||8.5|
|New York Giants||8||11||8.4|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||7.5||9||7.9|
|New Orleans Saints||7||7||7.7|
|Los Angeles Chargers||7||5||6.8|
|Los Angeles Rams||7.5||4||5.7|
|New York Jets||8||5||5.4|
|San Francisco 49ers||5.5||2||5.1|
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The 2017 NFL season will be here sooner than you think