The NFL season has hit the stretch run. It’s the last chance for teams to make a playoff push and for bettors to pad their bankrolls. Which quarterbacks can gamblers trust late in the year?
Tom Brady is the GOAT and the five-time Super Bowl champ is the most profitable quarterback in our database (143-96-8, 59.8% ATS) since 2003, but is he clutch when the calendar flips to December?
Here are the five most profitable late season QBs ATS (active)
Brady has the rings and no starter has more wins than the future Hall of Famer (71) after November but at Bet Labs we measure our champions at the ticket window. From September through November, Brady has covered the spread 62.3% of the time (91-55-7). His win rate drops to a respectable 55.9% ATS (52-41-1) in December through February but that is not enough to keep him in the top 5.
Big Ben, 45-28-1 (61.6%) ATS, has been the most clutch quarterback in the final month of the season and the playoffs. A streak many bettors hope will continue in Week 13 as 68% of spread tickets are on the Steelers -5.5 in Cincinnati. Roethlisberger is 21-7-1 ATS against the Bengals in his career, including 10-2-1 ATS down the stretch.
Of course, the one time a season you want to bet Eli Manning he gets benched. Unfortunately for bettors, in addition to Manning’s demotion, Aaron Rodgers is hurt and the Dolphins insist on starting Jay Cutler over Matt Moore. Combined Rodgers, Manning and Moore are 92-50-2 (64.8%) ATS to close out the season.
A quarterback you can wager on is Russell Wilson. The public is sleeping on the Seahawks as home dogs Sunday. Not only are big underdogs with little public support undervalued but the 12th Man’s favorite gunslinger has been lights out against the spread when it starts to get cold outside. Since he entered the league in 2012, only Rodgers (20-9-1 ATS) has been better at covering the number in games played in December or later.
Bottom of the Barrel
At least they are consistent. Jay Cutler (-30.12 units) and Matthew Stafford (-16.48 units) are two of the least profitable quarterbacks in our database since 2003. The trend continues as the playoffs approach, combined these veteran signal callers are 22-51-1 (30.1%) ATS over the final month of the season and the playoffs.