The football season is over. The Patriots completed one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history to win the championship and are favorites to repeat. Are preseason Super Bowl odds accurate?

For starters, since 2001 there have been 58 teams that had preseason odds to win the Super Bowl of 10/1 or better per SportsOddsHistory. That works out to about four teams a season that the oddsmakers believe to be true contenders for the title. Of this group 41 (75.8%) squads made the playoffs. That success rate increases to 80.6% (29 out of 36 teams) in the last ten years.

The preseason Super Bowl favorite has reached the championship game seven times since 2001 and won the Super Bowl twice. The last team to accomplish this feat were the Pats – 8/1 preseason favorites before winning Super Bowl 51.

This is the eighth time since 2005 that New England has been the preseason favorite to win it all. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have reached the Super Bowl three times as preseason favorites.

Are preseason Super Bowl odds accurate? Yes. The true title contenders (10/1 or better odds) have reached the postseason at a high rate and the preseason favorite has played in the Super Bowl nearly half the time.


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Preseason Super Bowl Odds

YearFavoriteFavorite FinishSuper Bowl Champ
2016PatriotsWon Super BowlPatriots 8/1
2015SeahawksLost Wild CardBroncos 8/1
2014SeahawksLost in Super BowlPatriots 7/1
2013Patriots Lost Conference ChampionshipSeahawks 12/1
2012PackersLost Divisional RoundRavens 14/1
2011PatriotsLost Super BowlGiants 20/1
2010ColtsLost Wild CardPackers 16/1
2009PatriotsLost Wild CardSaints 21/1
2008PatriotsMissed PlayoffsSteelers 18/1
2007PatriotsLost in Super BowlGiants 30/1
2006ColtsWon Super BowlColts 6/1
2005PatriotsLost Divisional RoundSteelers 12/1
2004EaglesLost Super BowlPatriots 6/1
2003BuccaneersMissed PlayoffsPatriots 15/1
2002RamsMissed PlayoffsBuccaneers 12/1
2001RamsLost Super BowlPatriots 60/1