The football season is over. The Patriots completed one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history to win the championship and are favorites to repeat. Are preseason Super Bowl odds accurate?
For starters, since 2001 there have been 58 teams that had preseason odds to win the Super Bowl of 10/1 or better per SportsOddsHistory. That works out to about four teams a season that the oddsmakers believe to be true contenders for the title. Of this group 41 (75.8%) squads made the playoffs. That success rate increases to 80.6% (29 out of 36 teams) in the last ten years.
The preseason Super Bowl favorite has reached the championship game seven times since 2001 and won the Super Bowl twice. The last team to accomplish this feat were the Pats – 8/1 preseason favorites before winning Super Bowl 51.
This is the eighth time since 2005 that New England has been the preseason favorite to win it all. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have reached the Super Bowl three times as preseason favorites.
Are preseason Super Bowl odds accurate? Yes. The true title contenders (10/1 or better odds) have reached the postseason at a high rate and the preseason favorite has played in the Super Bowl nearly half the time.
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Preseason Super Bowl Odds
|Year||Favorite||Favorite Finish||Super Bowl Champ|
|2016||Patriots||Won Super Bowl||Patriots 8/1|
|2015||Seahawks||Lost Wild Card||Broncos 8/1|
|2014||Seahawks||Lost in Super Bowl||Patriots 7/1|
|2013||Patriots||Lost Conference Championship||Seahawks 12/1|
|2012||Packers||Lost Divisional Round||Ravens 14/1|
|2011||Patriots||Lost Super Bowl||Giants 20/1|
|2010||Colts||Lost Wild Card||Packers 16/1|
|2009||Patriots||Lost Wild Card||Saints 21/1|
|2008||Patriots||Missed Playoffs||Steelers 18/1|
|2007||Patriots||Lost in Super Bowl||Giants 30/1|
|2006||Colts||Won Super Bowl||Colts 6/1|
|2005||Patriots||Lost Divisional Round||Steelers 12/1|
|2004||Eagles||Lost Super Bowl||Patriots 6/1|
|2003||Buccaneers||Missed Playoffs||Patriots 15/1|
|2002||Rams||Missed Playoffs||Buccaneers 12/1|
|2001||Rams||Lost Super Bowl||Patriots 60/1|