The latest Super Bowl odds are out and the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings are the favorites. With the postseason a week away, do any of these teams offer value to win the championship?
No, in fact the Pats, +200 favorites to repeat (BetOnline), are the worst bet on the board. According to Bet Labs’ 10,000 simulations there is a 24.74% chance Brady and Belichick get a sixth ring. At +200 odds, the implied probability of another Super Bowl parade in Foxborough is 33.33% (which is 100/(100+200)). The 8.59% gap between projected probability and implied chance is the largest among the title contenders.
If the favorites are mispriced that means a few longshots are undervalued by the bookmakers and that starts with one of the surprise teams in 2017.
Los Angeles Rams
Current odds: +1000, Implied Probability: 9.09%
Rams win the Super Bowl 15.69% of the time
Before the season began the Rams were +10000 to win the Super Bowl. Fast forward 16 weeks and the team now has the fifth best odds at the sportsbooks. How did this happen? A season after averaging 14.0 points per game (fewest in the league), the Rams lead the NFL in scoring (31.0 ppg). Todd Gurley is an MVP candidate and Sean McVay has engineered one of the greatest turnarounds in league history with L.A. ranking 4th in offensive, 6th in defensive and 2nd in special teams DVOA. The NFC is wide open and at +1000 odds there is value betting on Jared Goff, Gurley and the rest of the NFC West champions.
Week 17: Rams vs. 49ers
This Pro System is 160-97-3 (62.3%) since 2003
Current odds: +1600, Implied Probability: 5.88%
Jags win the Super Bowl 6.03% of the time
One of the most shocking results of Week 16 was the thorough butt kicking the Niners handed the Jags. For some the humbling loss cast doubt on Jacksonville’s playoff prospects, but I’m buying low on one of the league’s best defenses. Before giving up 44 points to San Francisco, Sacksonville had been the best unit in football and still is. The Jaguars have racked up a NFL-best 52 sacks and 32 takeaways while conceding 16.9 points per game. They say defense wins championships, that is a bet I’m willing to make.
Current odds: +3300, Implied Probability: 2.94%
Ravens win the Super Bowl 3.25% of the time
Baltimore has not secured a playoff berth heading into Week 17 but the Ravens are locks (96.8% chance) to make the postseason needing a win or a Bills loss or a Titans loss. If the team gets in, look out. Joe Flacco & Co. are 5-1 in their last six games with a +77-point differential that is second to the Patriots and a defense that leads the league in takeaways (33). The Ravens are getting hot at the right time.
Super Bowl Odds and Probabilities
|Team||Win Super Bowl (%)||Odds (BetOnline)|
|New England Patriots||24.74||+200|
|Los Angeles Rams||15.69||+1000|
|New Orleans Saints||5.52||+1000|
|Kansas City Chiefs||2.82||+1400|
|Los Angeles Chargers||0.75||+6600|
Photo via David Butler-USA TODAY Sports