Are the Patriots a good bet in 2017?

The New England Patriots had one of the most profitable betting seasons in NFL history in 2016. The Pats went 13-3 ATS in the regular season and won bettors twice as much money (+9.77 units) as the next best team (Saints: 10-5-1 ATS, +4.62 units). Can teams that consistently beat Vegas one year, repeat the feat the next season?

To answer that question, I pulled every team since 2003 that won 10 or more games against-the-spread in the regular season. There are 64 teams that match this criterion. In the year that these teams won 10 or more games against-the-spread, combined they went 687-314 (68.6%) ATS, +346.3 units. The next season those same teams went 491-506 (49.2%) ATS, -34.3 units.

As you might expect, teams tend to regress to the mean from season to season. However, the most profitable teams don’t fade as much as you think the next season.

ATS RecordPrevious Season UnitsNext Season Units
10 or more wins+346.3-34.3
11 or more wins+219.5-8.1
12 or more wins+103.9+0.34
Most Profitable Team Each Year+99.4+18.5

The most profitable teams in the regular season since 2003 have actually been profitable to bet the next season as well. Only one of the 13 teams have had a losing ATS record the next season.

The Pats have won 10 or more games against-the-spread four other times since 2003. In the next season, they finished .500 or better ATS and were +10.79 units.

YearATS RecordUnitsNext Season UnitsNext Season ATS Record
200313-2-1+10.0711-3+7.19
200411-3-2+7.198-8-0.07
200710-6+3.99-7+1.82
201010-5-1+4.759-7+1.85

Most teams that win 10 or more games against-the-spread one season tend to regress the next. Yet, the most profitable teams have stayed profitable in recent history. New England is also the most profitable regular season team in our database and have never had a losing ATS record in the last 14 years.

Are the Patriots a good bet this year? Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are favored in every game in 2017 and while there is no guarantee they’ll continue to cover, you shouldn’t fade the Pats either.


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