Oddsmakers have mispriced the Jags to win the AFC South

As the NFL enters the final month of the regular season many of the division races are over. The Eagles, Patriots, Steelers and Vikings all have at least a three-game advantage over their rivals but in the other divisions a champion has yet to reveal itself.

Which teams are the best bet to win their divisions?

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the division at BetOnline and compare that to our projected probability that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season. For example, Detroit is +1000 to win the NFC North. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Lions they would need to take the division 9.1% (which is 100/(100+1000)) of the time. Matthew Stafford and crew have just a 1.8% chance of overcoming the Vikings for the division title meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +1000 odds.

Here are three teams with the most value to win their division.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Current odds: +120, Implied Probability: 45.6%

Jags win the AFC South 77.8% of the time

Here is what we said about the Jags a month ago when they were +210 to win the AFC South:

In every division, the betting favorite is the same as our pick based on 10,000 simulations, except in the AFC South. Backing Blake Bortles is scary but with a solid running game and a defense that leads the league in sacks (33) and turnovers (16) his impact should be limited.

All that is still true, except Jacksonville is second in forced turnovers with 25. No team is as mispriced as the Jags according to our numbers. Even with Bortles starting, Doug Marrone’s team should be closer to -350 favorites than +120 underdogs.

Kansas City Chiefs

Current odds: -210, Implied Probability: 67.7%

Chiefs win the AFC West 71.9% of the time

After a 5-0 start, the Chiefs have lost five of six and the team’s lead in the AFC West has shrunk to one game. But playing in a weak division and with an easy schedule (none of the team’s remaining opponents have a winning record), KC is still the model’s pick to win the division.

Seattle Seahawks

Current odds: +150, Implied Probability: 40.0%

Seahawks win the NFC West 43.6% of the time

Seattle no longer has the Legion of Boom but Russell is as versatile as ever.  The Seahawks star quarterback is top five in yards per game (275) and touchdowns (23), he ranks 9th in QBR and has rushed for over 400 yards. The division race will likely come down to a Week 15 showdown. Seattle will have home field advantage and the better quarterback, that could be enough to win the NFC West for a fourth time in five years.

NFL Week 13: Seahawks vs. Eagles

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NFL Division Odds and Probabilities