Nobody believes in the Texans. Houston is a 15.5 point underdog against the New England Patriots in the Divisional Round on Saturday. Since 2003, underdogs of 14 or more points have gone 4-85 straight-up, a win rate of 4.7%.
Houston is probably going to lose but that doesn’t mean they won’t cover. Here is why bettors should believe in the Texans.
Week 3: Patriots 27, Texans 0
Houston lost 27-0 in Week 3 against New England. That loss also came against third string quarterback Jacoby Brissett, not Tom Brady. That’s not a good look but the poor performance will actually help bettors who take Houston.
Teams that lost the previous head-to-head matchup by 2 or more touchdowns and then are underdogs in the rematch in the playoffs have gone 24-14 ATS.
Casual bettors remember blowouts like the Texans suffered in the regular season. This will inflate the line and give value to the underdog.
Playoff Results Matter
Brock Osweiler was bad during the regular season, so what. The Texans won the AFC South with a 9-7 record, it doesn’t matter. Houston looked good in its win over Oakland and Osweiler played well throwing for a touchdown and running for another score.
Teams that won their previous game by 10 or more points and then are underdogs of 7 or more points in the playoffs have gone 15-8 ATS.
It is easy to knock Houston but the Texans just played their best game all season and are getting a bunch of points against a team that doesn’t cover very often in the playoffs. You don’t have to believe in Houston but the Texans can cover against the Patriots.