The NL Central and AL East races will go down to the wire. While the Nats, Astros, Dodgers and Indians all enjoy double-digit leads in their respective divisions, the Red Sox and Cubs have failed to pull away in the second half. With less than 25 games to be played, which teams should you bet to win these competitive divisions?

To determine if a team has value we created a consensus projection using FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus and then compared the simulation results to the current odds at 5Dimes for each team to win its respective division.

NL Central

According to the consensus projections the Cubbies are 83.9% likely to win the division. It would be Chicago’s first back-to-back division crowns since 2007-08. However, at -800 odds there is no value betting the defending champions. There is slight value taking the Field +550.

St. Louis is 7th in offensive WAR and 9th in pitching WAR in the majors. The Birds have the talent to catch the Cubs. The team closes with 22 straight in division games including seven against Chicago. If the Cubbies falter the Cards could take advantage. At +1585 there is value betting STL to win the division.

AL East

Boston had a chance to slam the door shut on New York but the Yankees took 3 of 4 against the Red Sox last weekend. Now MLB is investigating the AL East division leaders for taping opponent’s signs. Can Boston ignore the distractions and hold on for the division win? FanGraphs and BaseballProspectus give the Red Sox an 83.2% chance of winning the AL East. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers have priced this prop correctly and there is no value betting either side.

Division Prop Bets (5Dimes)

TeamDivisionOddsField OddsConsensus Projection
CubsNL Central-800+55083.9%
BrewersNL Central+795-12376.3%
CardinalsNL Central+1585-31709.8%
Red SoxAL East-600+45083.2%

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