Eastern Conference Game 7 Update
The Pittsburgh Penguins will host the Ottawa Senators in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals on Thursday.
Since 2005, home teams in Game 7s are 25-25 straight-up.
Teams that won Game 6 are 25-25 straight-up in Game 7.
The Favorite in Game 7s is 28-22 (56%).
Originally posted on 5/9/2017
The Washington Capitals beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 5-2 on Monday and the Edmonton Oilers waxed the Anaheim Ducks 7-1 on Sunday to force a pair Game 7s. Which teams will advance to the conference finals? It’s tough to say, NHL Game 7s are hard to predict.
Home ice matters in the playoffs, right? Sort of, since 2005, the home team has won 55.5% of all postseason games (565-453). That is up from the regular season where home teams are 7,797-6403 (54.9%) straight-up.
However, home teams in Game 7s are 24-24 straight-up. That isn’t a large sample but compared to the NBA Playoffs, where home teams in Game 7s have gone 28-11 straight-up since 2005, you cannot count on home ice to pick the winner.
Perhaps there is an edge for the team that forced the Game 7. The Caps played inspired hockey to overwhelm the Pens. Does momentum from Game 6 carry over to the winner-take-all showdown? No. Teams that won the previous game are 25-23 straight-up in Game 7.
If anyone knows who will win it’s the bookmakers. Favorites in Game 7 are 27-21 (56.3%) straight-up since 2005. That’s the best results so far but in Games 1 to 6, the favorite is 582-388 (60.0%) straight-up.
The Ducks and Caps have home ice and are favored but we know Game 7s are hard to predict. Any team could advance to the next round.
Oilers vs. Ducks
There is a pick for this game that is 39-19 (67.2%) straight-up all-time