NFL Week 3 Survivor Pool

ORCHARD PARK, NY - SEPTEMBER 14:   Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Miami Dolphins throws against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Ralph Wilson Stadium on September 14, 2014 in Orchard Park, New York.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

We have survived the first two weeks of the NFL season with the Chiefs (barely) and the Panthers (easily).  Week 3 throws a curveball our way with a couple of quarterback injuries.  Here is the grid that shows projected winning percentage for each team for the rest of the season.


There were two games where I cheated.  When there is a quarterback change, it is difficult to adjust each team’s true win expectancy correctly.  There is admittedly some guesswork involved.  So with both the Texans-Patriots and Browns-Dolphins game, I looked at the betting line as a guide.  It didn’t matter much for the New England game because neither team was going to play anyway.  But the Dolphins jump to the highest probability of the week at 81.8%.  Which leads us to:

Week 3 Pick: Dolphins (vs Browns)

I’m admittedly a little gunshy about this pick.  We don’t know if Cody Kessler is closer to Carson Wentz or Johnny Manziel.  But either way, we are fading a bad team on the road starting their third-string rookie in his first career game.  I know the Dolphins are 0-2 but they played road games at Seattle and New England.  Wouldn’t you have expected them to be 0-2?  We’ll make our first change of the season (originally had Packers in Week 3) and go with the Miami to win their home opener against a rookie QB.

Upcoming survivor schedule that is very likely to change:

Week 4: Texans (vs Titans)
Week 5: Patriots (at Browns) (Brady’s vengeance game)
Week 6: Seahawks (vs Falcons)
Week 7: Bengals (vs Browns)
Week 8: Broncos (vs Chargers)
Week 9: Vikings (vs Lions)
Week 10: Cardinals (vs 49ers)
Week 11: Steelers (at Browns)
Week 12: Cowboys (vs Redskins)

Best of luck this week!

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