We have survived the first two weeks of the NFL season with the Chiefs (barely) and the Panthers (easily). Week 3 throws a curveball our way with a couple of quarterback injuries. Here is the grid that shows projected winning percentage for each team for the rest of the season.
There were two games where I cheated. When there is a quarterback change, it is difficult to adjust each team’s true win expectancy correctly. There is admittedly some guesswork involved. So with both the Texans-Patriots and Browns-Dolphins game, I looked at the betting line as a guide. It didn’t matter much for the New England game because neither team was going to play anyway. But the Dolphins jump to the highest probability of the week at 81.8%. Which leads us to:
Week 3 Pick: Dolphins (vs Browns)
I’m admittedly a little gunshy about this pick. We don’t know if Cody Kessler is closer to Carson Wentz or Johnny Manziel. But either way, we are fading a bad team on the road starting their third-string rookie in his first career game. I know the Dolphins are 0-2 but they played road games at Seattle and New England. Wouldn’t you have expected them to be 0-2? We’ll make our first change of the season (originally had Packers in Week 3) and go with the Miami to win their home opener against a rookie QB.
Upcoming survivor schedule that is very likely to change:
Week 4: Texans (vs Titans)
Week 5: Patriots (at Browns) (Brady’s vengeance game)
Week 6: Seahawks (vs Falcons)
Week 7: Bengals (vs Browns)
Week 8: Broncos (vs Chargers)
Week 9: Vikings (vs Lions)
Week 10: Cardinals (vs 49ers)
Week 11: Steelers (at Browns)
Week 12: Cowboys (vs Redskins)
Best of luck this week!