Congrats on getting this far in your survivor pool. Judging by our page views, there aren’t a lot of you left. At this point in the season, you probably already know that we model each team’s chance to win every game of the season and compare that to the current odds at Pinnacle. We also show the pick percentage at Yahoo and how many games we project to have remaining for each team.
If you didn’t know all of that, well now you do after reading that sentence. Let’s take a look at this week’s grid.
Let’s discuss all of this week’s options.
Detroit Lions Model: 84.3% Pinnacle: 85.0% Yahoo: 75.0% Games Remaining: 2
Holy moly. Three out of every four picks are currently taking the Lions as big home favorites against the Browns. Survivor players have been fading Cleveland all season but not to this extent. Here is why I don’t think you should take Detroit. Currently the Browns have roughly a 15% chance to win according to the odds. That means that there is a 15% chance that 75% of your pool gets taken out with one game. Even if you think the true odds are more like 10%, it’s still a good mathematical play to fade the popular pick this week as hard as it may be to pass.
Pittsburgh Steelers Model: 76.7% Pinnacle: 79.9% Yahoo: 3.9% Games Remaining: 6
Pittsburgh is a double-digit favorite on the road against Indy but aren’t getting much attention. A lot of that is likely due to people already using the Steelers earlier in the season. So if you have saved them to this point, you have a good contrarian pick in Week 10. That being said, there is a lot of games coming up that also look to be favorable as well with six games projected to have a winning percentage of 65% or more remaining over the next eight weeks.
Carolina Panthers Model: 75.8% Pinnacle: 78.1% Yahoo: 2.8% Games Remaining: 2
Another contrarian pick is Carolina facing a downtrodden Dolphins team on Monday Night Football. They have similar traits as the Steelers only they don’t have as many games left on the schedule that look to be good options. The Panthers would be my favorite pick this week if I have them as an option.
Los Angeles Rams Model: 75.1% Pinnacle: 82.9% Yahoo: 14.2% Games Remaining: 2
The model was admittedly a little slow to catch up on the Rams. When teams get off to a hot start, the numbers suggest to hold off before crowning them champs after a few good games. But after nine weeks, the Rams are one of the best teams in the league and now get to face Tom Savage at home. They are a fine choice if you’re running low on options this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars Model: 74.0% Pinnacle: 65.3% Yahoo: 0.4% Games Remaining: 5
The model continues to like the Jaguars more than the betting market. Jacksonville is another viable option but it’s also crazy to think they have five more games that are options this season. Their schedule includes games against the Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Texans, and 49ers. Even if you don’t use the Jags this week, you’ll likely be using them soon.
Seattle Seahawks Model: 69.3% Pinnacle: 68.5% Yahoo: 0.6% Games Remaining: 3
The Seahawks are an ok choice this week but I would look to other teams this week as Seattle has some easier games coming up on its schedule and I tend to try to avoid road teams on a short week.
New England Patriots Model: 64.6% Pinnacle: 73.2% Yahoo: 1.3% Games Remaining: 5
I included the Patriots since they are one of the bigger favorites on the board this week. The model thinks that Denver is being a little underrated after being blown out by the Eagles last week. Because of that, New England might not have the cakewalk that some are expecting. Given their past troubles in Denver, could be a good time to pass on the Pats and save them for later.
Week 10 Rankings:
(1) Carolina Panthers (vs Miami)
(2) Pittsburgh Steelers (at Indianapolis)
(3) Los Angeles Rams (vs Houston)
(4) Seattle Seahawks (at Cardinals)
(5) Jacksonville Jaguars (vs LA Chargers)
(6) New England Patriots (at Denver)
(7) Detroit Lions (vs Cleveland)
There are some other factors that you should start to consider as well. Looking at how many people are remaining and what options they have left can also help you make a better decision. If you still have a large number of entries left, you should pay more attention to pick percentages. If it’s just you and your college buddy left, then you can probably safely take Detroit without worrying about the expected value too much.
If you have questions or just want to argue about taking the Lions this week, hit us up on twitter @Bet_Labs and give us a follow.